The three mistakes of Nitish Kumar
With his political flip-flop and by aligning himself once again with the BJP, the JDU leader has exposed his ideological ambivalence and now stands in danger of losing the minority vote in the Indian state of Bihar
itish Kumar may have won the trust vote in the legislature of the Indian state of Bihar, but he is now weaker than what he was during his earlier stint as the Chief Minister. At that time, he had become a larger-than-life figure because of his success in controlling lawlessness in the state and preparing the ground for development. As a result, he was even seen as a possible player on the national stage.
But that aura is gone. The reason is his journey from the “communal” to the “secular” camp and back. Had he moved in only one direction, he would have appeared more straightforward than at present. But trips back and forth tend to undermine a politician’s credibility. He is seen then as an opportunist on the lookout for the best chance.
If he had wanted to retain his trustworthiness in the wake of the corruption charges against his former alliance partner Lalu Prasad and his family, he should have called for fresh elections. That would have been a message to Lalu as well, for it would have shown him — as well as other politicians — that sleaze doesn’t pay. As it is, Lalu, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief, is barred from contesting elections because of his conviction in the fodder scam case. But switching sides within two years of securing a mandate has put Nitish in the lowly category of the Congress MLAs in Gujarat who have been lured away to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) camp by the indefatigable Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo.
Nitish’s latest manoeuvre may well turn out to be his third political mistake. The first was in 2013 when he had hurriedly quit the alliance with the BJP because he feared that Modi’s rise will erode his Muslim support base in Bihar. As long as Modi restricted himself to his role as the chief minister of Gujarat, Nitish was happy in the BJP, in the company of stalwarts like former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L.K. Advani. But Modi’s entry on the national stage unnerved Nitish. So he ran from the rock of a changing BJP to the hard place of his erstwhile friend and hero/villain Lalu. That was Nitish’s second mistake, for he ignored the possibility that the hero/villain of the RJD’s “jungle raj” (anarchic rule) in Bihar may ultimately be his nemesis.
‘Modern-day Nero’
And so it has proved to be. But the way out for Nitish was not to retrace his steps, for he has gone back to the same person from whom he ran away four years ago. If the Bihar CM was afraid in 2013 that Modi would scare away the Muslims, he should harbour the same fear now when the rampaging gau rakshaks (cow vigilantes) have become a frightening menace for the minorities in India.
True, Modi of 2017 is not the Modi of 2002 — when he was even called a “modern-day Nero” by the Supreme Court — because he has been speaking out against the cow vigilantes. But how far the BJP has changed with Modi’s latest assertions is open to question.
Nitish is teaming up, therefore, with a party whose pursuit of Hindutva (a hegemonic Hindu way of life) and ultra-nationalism is far more aggressive at present than in the days of Vajpayee and Advani. Politically, too, the BJP believes that the future belongs to it mainly because of its spectacular success in the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state by size and population, earlier this year. Now, Nitish’s floor-crossing will convince the BJP that the Hindi heartland is firmly in its grip. It is unlikely, therefore, that it will allow Nitish to call the shots as before. Instead, the Modi dispensation may placate him with a special financial package for Bihar.
What the latest events have shown is that Nitish’s destiny is to be a provincial politician, remaining confined like his friendcum-foe-cum-friend-cum-foe again, Lalu, in Bihar only. Any hope that he may have had of playing a larger role, which was possible if he had stayed with the opposition, is unlikely to be fulfilled.
Bihar itself may gain because of the Centre’s largesse and Nitish’s administrative capabilities, but the future of his party — Janata Dal-United (JDU) — is uncertain because its Muslim and Yadav components may drift away. The fading out of the party will make Nitish even more beholden to the BJP.
The RJD, on the other hand, is likely to grow and fill the empty opposition space in Bihar in the absence of the JDU and the Congress.
Nitish’s well-wishers will hope that with his amiable personality, he will exert a moderating influence on the BJP and be on Modi’s side in reining in the hardliners and turning the focus resolutely on development. That is the only way he can redeem himself. Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst.