Spotlight on direct-rule clause as Spain enters uncharted territory

It could be another two weeks before Madrid can take any action against Catalan separatist leader

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy risks a possible damaging entanglement in hostile terrain as he moves to control the Catalan campaign for independence, according to Catalan separatists and analysts.

Rajoy’s Cabinet met in Madrid yesterday to announce specific measures to reassert control over the rebel region, a process set out in the Spanish constitution that’s never yet been tested. Among the top priorities is bringing to heel the Catalan police force and deciding what to do with President Carles Puigdemont. The plan still needs approval by the Senate, so it could be another two weeks before Spain can take any action.

“This is a minefield for Rajoy,” said Antonio Barroso, an analyst in London at Teneo Intelligence, a company advising on political risk. “The implementation on the ground is a risk for him when the government may face some regional civil servants who don’t cooperate.”

Three Catalan leaders meanwhile said Rajoy is not equipped to achieve his goals — reckoning they have enough support among the Catalan civil service and police to thwart Spain’s plan. The officials — one from the parliament, one from the regional executive and one from the grass-roots campaign organisation — spoke on condition of anonymity due to the legal threats against the Catalan movement.

It all comes down to Article 155 of the constitution, a short passage that gives the legal green light for Spain to revoke the semi-autonomy of Catalonia. Foreign Minister Alfonso Dastis said at a press conference in Madrid on Friday that it would be applied in a “prudent, proportionate and gradual manner.”

Police on Rajoy’s side

The problem for Rajoy is that the separatists already proved with their makeshift referendum on October 1 that they can ignore edicts from Madrid with a degree of success. That means he will need to back up his ruling with people on the ground.

The Catalan police force, the Mossos d’Esquadra, ignored orders to shut down polling stations before the illegal vote on October 1. After Rajoy sent in the Civil Guard, images of Spanish police beating wouldbe voters were broadcast around the world.

Mossos chief Josep Lluis Trapero is a local hero, his face worn on T-shirts at separatist demonstrations. When he returned last week from an interrogation in Madrid, where he’s facing possible sedition charges, staff greeted him with hugs and applause.

To be sure, Rajoy has the Spanish police on his side, as well as the army in the final instance.

And the central government has already imposed strict controls on payments by the regional administration since last month, restricting the flow of Catalan government subsidies to sympathetic media organisations and civic groups. One person familiar with the government’s plans said that Madrid could withhold the salaries of regional officials to force them to comply.