Defeated Daesh militants melt into desolate desert to regroup

Barren landscape of Badiyat Al Sham is a perfect hideout

ANALYSIS vanquished, but many agree this territorial defeat will not mark the end of Daesh.

Beyond the urban and inhabited areas lies the vast Syrian Desert, also known as Badiyat Al Sham, famous for its caves and rugged mountains.

It encompasses about 500,000 square kilometres across parts of southeastern Syria, northeastern Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia, and western Iraq.

The desolate landscape is a perfect hideout and a second home for many Daesh militants from the days before the birth of their ‘caliphate’.

Experts estimate that hundreds of thousands of troops would be needed to mount search operations - and even more to put the desert under permanent control.

Once they melt into the desert, without an army of tens of thousands of supporters from dozens of countries, Daesh militants will resort to guerrilla-style attacks: scattered hitand-run attacks and suicide bombings.

“They love fighting battles in the desert and they will go back to the old ways,” said Omar Abu Laila, a Europe-based opposition activist originally from Syria’s eastern province of Deir Al Zor, which lies in the heart of Badiyat Al Sham.

Daesh leaders appear to have made contingency plans that involve precisely this regrouping in the desert and launching attacks, much like Daesh’ predecessor, Al Qaida in Iraq, did for more than a decade after the US-led 2003 invasion.

“Daesh is on their heels right now and our job is to make sure they don’t recover,” Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

Experts say that will be difficult. Dana Jalal, a Swedenbased Iraqi journalist who closely follows militant groups in the Middle East, said Daesh “will become an underground terrorist organisation.”

“The lone wolf has nothing to lose. They have nothing to defend now,” Jalal said.

The group’s predecessor, Al Qaida in Iraq, was almost crushed in 2007 by US and Iraqi forces. But after the Americans withdrew from Iraq in 2011, the militants regrouped, eventually emerging stronger than ever in the summer of 2014, when they conquered large areas of Syria and Iraq.

After losing ground in Syria and Iraq, Daesh will try to increase its presence in Libya, Yemen and Afghanistan.

Iraqi journalist