Independence vote back to haunt Barzani

The Kurds bit off more than they could chew with the referendum and by seizing areas beyond their region

raqi Kurdistan’s ill-advised independence referendum has claimed its first victim: Veteran politician and President of Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Masoud Barzani will not extend his term beyond November 1. His supporters might argue that Barzani’s move had nothing to do with the referendum as he had spoken about not extending his term earlier this year. But the fact is no one expected Barzani to keep his promise. His latest move is a direct result of the Iraqi, regional, and international backlash against the KRG following their hasty move.

The Iraqi Kurdish authorities had also announced that on November 1, they would be holding presidential and parliamentary elections. But, in another humiliation for the KRG, they were left with no choice but to “indefinitely delay” the vote. The central government in Baghdad, meanwhile, has demanded nothing short of the annulment of the earlier independence referendum.

It is clear that Baghdad — and indeed regional and international powers — are in no mood to tolerate the break-up of nation-states. Time and again, in different parts of the world, it has become clear that international sentiment is firmly against secession. It is difficult to believe the Kurdish officials did not realise this.

The Kurds of Iraq suffered greatly during the reign of Saddam Hussain, like all Iraqis. But for a long time now, they have enjoyed unprecedented levels of autonomy and prosperity. They pretty much ran their own affairs in ways they deemed fit. However, by seizing territory beyond the borders of their autonomous region at a time when the central government was busy battling Daesh, and in fact in their own battles with the terror group, the Kurds bit off more than they could chew. And by going ahead with their independence vote, they totally underestimated Baghdad’s determination to ensure the territorial integrity of Iraq, with the help of its regional and international allies.

The first to fall was Kirkuk — a city the Kurds hold dear for historical and economic reasons. Following this, Iraqi forces continued with their successful campaign to wrest all the Iraqi territory held by the Kurds that is outside the borders of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The one good thing to come out of Barzani’s latest decision is that he has also sought a division of the president’s powers among the government, the parliament, and the judiciary. More scrutiny of decisions and more centres of power often leads to better decisionmaking.