Summit may be delayed or scrapped

FUTURE OF BLOC IS STATUS QUO OR EXPULSION OF QATAR: ANALYSTS

GCC will be turned into a confederation of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and UAE, and possibly Kuwait, in the long run, analyst predicts |

Bahrain’s decision to boycott any GCC summit or meeting if Qatar attends is the right move to put out an end to a growing miasma in the region, a Bahraini analyst said.

“As pointed out by King Hamad Bin Eisa Al Khalifa, the GCC must be coherent and strong to be able to move forward and to protect its security and stability,” Mohammad Jaber said. “Bahrain has long suffered because of the dramatic events in recent years, and it can no longer accept less than full commitment to upholding its security and stability.”

Regarding the future of the GCC, the analyst said he would expect, in the long run, the alliance would be turned into a confederation between Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and possibly Kuwait. “Qatar is of course out, while Oman has clearly said that it was not in favour of a GCC union,” he said.

In the absence of both Bahrain and Qatar, the prospects of holding the Arab Gulf summit seem to be nil, other analysts said. “Obviously, if two countries don’t attend [the scheduled summit], it would be difficult to hold it,” said Waheed Hamza Hashem, a Jeddahbased political scientist, in reference to the King’s statement on Monday and reports which said Qatar would most probably not attend. “It would be difficult to hold the summit given the absence of one-third of the members … the decisions need to be taken unanimously,” he told Gulf News.

Mohammad Izz Al Arab, a researcher specialising in Gulf affairs at Cairo-based Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said the GCC summit’s fate is “either delay or cancellation”. This is due to the wide gap in the positions of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain on one side and Qatar on the other. Given the circumstances, the fate of the Gulf bloc itself is unclear — “unless things return to normal and an agreement is reached among the four countries,” said Hashem. Other than that, any “Gulf bloc comprised of three or four members won’t be as efficient as this one,” he said.

Among the possible scenarios related to the fate of the current bloc is either status quo or the expulsion of Qatar, the formation of a new bloc between Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain.

Mohammad Al Hammadi, the Editor-in-Chief of the UAE Arabic daily Al Ittihad, said Qatar does not respect the charters, treaties, and ties that bind the GCC. “The Bahraini King affirmed Qatar is no longer fit for membership of this council. It chose or was chosen to be a poisonous dagger that stabs the GCC states in the back.”

Al Hammadi feels the Gulf summit scheduled for next December may not be held. “If it is held, it may be a routine and a meaningless protocol issue. Bahrain’s boycott will not be limited to the summit, but will extend to any Gulf meeting attended by Qatar. Gulf countries, including Bahrain, are keen on the survival and cohesion and strength of the council. But Qatar believes this Council has ended, so it turned its back on it, and turned to Iran.”