Jordan water crisis worse than expected

Recent studies suggest the kingdom is being hit particularly hard by climate change

From a hillside in northern Jordan, the Yarmouk River is barely visible in the steep valley below, reduced from a once-important water source to a sluggish trickle. Jordan’s reservoirs are only one-fifth full, a record low, and vital winter rains are becoming more erratic.

Jordanians don’t need scientists to tell them they live in one of the world’s driest countries in the centre of the planet’s most water-poor region.

But recent studies suggest the kingdom, a Western ally and refugee host nation with a growing population, is being hit particularly hard by climate change, getting hotter and drier than previously anticipated. One forecast predicts as much as 30 per cent less rain by 2100.

“We are really in trouble if we don’t take action in time,” said Ali Subah, a senior Water Ministry official.

Warning signs abound of what a failure to act looks like. The Dead Sea and Jordan River, global treasures with religious significance as the cradle of Christianity, have been devastated by dropping water levels due to decades of water diversion to urban areas. Some experts suggest civil war in neighbouring Syria, which led to a large influx of refugees to Jordan and other neighbouring countries, may have been triggered in part and indirectly by a mismanaged drought.

Stanford University researchers say in the absence of international climate policy action, the kingdom would have 30 per cent less rainfall by 2100. Annual average temperatures would increase by 4.5 degrees Celsius and the number and duration of droughts would double, compared to the 1981-2010 period.

The results, published in the journal Science Advances and based on improved data analysis tools, suggest the impact of climate change is likely to be more severe than anticipated, said Steven Gorelick, head of the university’s internationally supported Jordan Water Project.