Astana talks must build confidence
For any peace initiative on Syria to succeed, there needs to be a broad consensus and global backing
Afresh round of peace talks in Astana, aimed at ending Syria’s protracted civil war, is currently underway. The Moscow-led initiative, which is actively supported by Iran and Turkey, is being held in tandem with the United Nations-sponsored negotiations in Geneva that seek to look for a serious political solution to one of the most devastating conflicts of our times. Focusing mainly on ceasefire and other battlefield matters, the Astana talks have an overwhelming Russian stamp (with Tehran’s nod), leading to questions about its efficacy and legitimacy.
With the latest round of talks beginning days after Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) was forced out of its de facto capital Raqqa, representatives of the Bashar Al Assad regime and Syrian opposition groups have gathered in the Kazakh capital, hoping to agree on a ceasefire arrangement.
One of the main sticking issues of Astana talks would be a convergence of plans to finalise the so-called de-escalation zones across eight of Syria’s 14 provinces. The zones include several areas of Idlib, Latakia, Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Eastern Gouta, Deraa and Al Quneitra. While zones covering Eastern Gouta and Homs had already been agreed upon during previous round of talks, it remains to be seen whether the warring factions are able to overcome their objections and grievances to iron out the details of other de-escalation zones.
After nearly six years of war that has left much of Syria in ruins, killed nearly half a million people, and displaced half of the population, there is a strong clamour for a diplomatic initiative towards return to peace. Despite backing opposite sides in the war, Ankara and Moscow have been working closely on Syria since last year. The last round of talks in September saw Russia, Turkey and Iran agree to jointly police a buffer zone in Idlib, where Ankara and Tehran are known to have competing interests.
While such complexities remain, a question mark hovers on the future of these talks. Given the fear that no significant breakthroughs were achieved during the previous rounds of Astana, there is apprehension on whether the Al Assad regime is being allowed more latitude at Astana. The seventh round will address the issue of the release of prisoners, allow medical aid (sent by UN agencies) into rebel enclaves, and tackle other pressing matters. It should also pave the way for confidence-building measures so that more tangible action can be pursued. For any peace initiative on Syria to succeed, there needs to be a broad consensus and international approval. The talks at Astana should aim for an across-theboard consensus. And that will help rejuvenate the Geneva talks, which enjoys a wider backing.