Trump’s dangerous retreat from Africa
US foreign engagement is declining and other countries have begun to fill the void by increasing their political and economic activity
An Africanist Donald Trump is not. Unlike his two immediate predecessors, who had signature initiatives on the continent, the United States president has shown little interest in Africa and had minimal contact with its leaders. At a lunch he hosted with nine African heads of state on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly in September, he repeatedly referred to the southern African country of Namibia as “Nambia” and startled those in attendance by celebrating the extractive potential of the continent. “I have so many friends going to your countries trying to get rich,” he said. “I congratulate you — they’re spending a lot of money.” Trump made no reference to human rights or strengthening democracy in Africa, usual themes in presidential remarks about the continent.
But the deaths of four American soldiers in Niger and the inclusion of Chad, a key US counterterrorism partner, on the latest iteration of Trump’s travel ban have made Africa increasingly difficult for the administration to ignore. These events have also exposed the administration’s startling lack of expertise when it comes to the continent and its reticence to tap the knowledge of career diplomats and analysts in the executive agencies — missteps that have already cost the administration and which could have additional consequences down the road.
Trump’s disinterest in Africa appears to be shared by many in his Cabinet, including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who, at an hour-long meeting with State Department employees on August 1 embarked on a “little walk ... around the world” that did not mention Africa and its 1.2 billion inhabitants — roughly 17 per cent of the world’s population. The administration’s political point person for Africa seems to be America’s Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, who had little foreign experience prior to her appointment.
Making matters worse, the Trump administration has shown little respect for the expertise that resides at the departments of State and Defence, within the intelligence community, and within the academic and policy communities. Important African diplomatic posts remain unfilled, and domestic positions concerned with Africa have been filled only very slowly.
A very low baseline
The defining feature of the Trump administration’s Africa policy so far is its ramping-up of military and counterterrorism engagement, a trend that began before Trump took office. In a recent conversation with senators, Defence Secretary James Mattis indicated that the US military presence in Africa is set to increase, with continuing training, reconnaissance, and air support missions that accelerated under former president Barack Obama (though from a very low baseline).
This shift is also reflected in the administration’s budget proposal, which may end up having the biggest initial impact on US policy towards Africa. The Defence Department budget would swell by roughly 9 per cent, enabling it to increase its presence in Africa, while the State Department would see a roughly 30 per cent cut, if the administration gets its way. Included in that cut would be USAID, meaning that almost all development assistance would be eliminated, as would many health-related programmes. Africa would be disproportionately affected; at present roughly one-third of USAID funds go to the continent. Trump’s budget would also nearly halve the US contribution to UN peacekeeping operations, more than half of which are in Africa.
Finally, while the administration’s budget proposal explicitly states that it will be “continuing treatment for all current HIV/AIDS patients” under PEPFAR (which provided life-saving antiretroviral drugs to 11.5 million people last year), the proposal would lower the yearly contribution by 17 per cent, or about $800 million (Dh2.94 billion).
Congress is likely to oppose many of these cuts, however, and in the end they are unlikely to be as deep as Trump’s budget proposal would indicate. Even so, cutting just half of what the president has proposed would significantly reduce the scope of department and agency activities, with the exception of defence. So far under Trump, US foreign engagement is declining with respect to Africa. China and India have already begun to fill the void by steadily increasing their political and economic activity, as have Turkey, the Gulf states, and Iran. Larger African states, notably Nigeria, South Africa and Ethiopia, may also assume a more significant role than in the past. Few of these countries share America’s commitment to democracy, human rights, or security. Yet, with the US administration’s back turned, they are increasingly ascendant in Africa.
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