Sabre-rattling for presidency in Kenya

Opposition leader Raila Odinga wants to swear himself in as president, but that would be a bad idea

ike the US President Donald Trump, Kenya’s opposition leader Raila Odinga has a nuclear button, one that he now says he is not afraid to use. He has refused to recognise President Uhuru Kenyatta’s controversial re-election and has vowed to have himself sworn in as president by the end of the month. This has drawn a predictably alarmed reaction from within the government with Attorney General Githu Muigai having warned Odinga that he risks being put to death for treason if he goes ahead.

The standoff over the presidency — now into its sixth month — has witnessed the first annulment of a presidential election in the continent’s history and has taken a terrible toll. More than 60 people have died, according to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, mostly protesters killed by police and governmentallied militia.

The prospect of Odinga taking the oath would undoubtedly raise the stakes even higher. His boycott of the October repeat election severely dented Kenyatta’s legitimacy, both locally and internationally. The government’s international standing has recovered somewhat, especially after the Trump administration’s endorsement, but many fear that its continuing weakness at home could spur more bloodletting in reaction to an Odinga inauguration — or even see the country begin to unravel.

However, the thing about nuclear buttons is that while they make impressive sabres to rattle, they are not meant to be pushed. Similarly, Odinga would much rather not have his bluff called.

First, his trump card might turn out to be a dud. Would he try to move into the state house or attempt to evict Kenyatta? That would be highly unlikely. Also, he would still have no control over security forces and government agencies, none of which have shown any indication of siding with him. Odinga himself has stressed the importance of having “a plan after the Bible”, and though he now claims to have one, it is unclear what exactly it is.

On the other hand, there is a real risk of retaliation from a government that has shown no aversion to killing scores of its own citizens to preserve Kenyatta’s hold on power. While it is unlikely that the government would risk the backlash that arresting and trying Odinga for treason. His father, Kenya’s first vice-president, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, was twice held under house arrest by the repressive regimes of Uhuru Kenyatta’s father, Jomo Kenyatta, and his successor, Daniel arap Moi. This, indeed, is what ruling party MPs have been threatening. Perhaps in recognition of the risks, he has twice put off the swearing-in.

The US has been leading efforts to dissuade Odinga from taking the oath, at one point reportedly promising to deliver the government side to the negotiating table. However, there has so far been little serious indication that the Kenyatta administration is interested in talks about its legitimacy, and its intransigence may be what forces Odinga’s hand.

All this fits into a pattern of resolving disputes that Kenyan politicians learned from the British colonial administration and have perfected during more than half a century of independence. This involves protests, violent repression and eventual compromise. It is a game of brinksmanship in which both sides of the dispute push the country to the edge of anarchy (and sometimes a little over as happened a decade ago) before pulling back and negotiating an agreement. Regardless of whether Odinga goes ahead with the swearing-in, Kenya seems destined for an extended period of political and economic unrest and uncertainty. It is the country’s very own Art of the Deal. Patrick Gathara is a strategic communications consultant, writer and award-winning political cartoonist in Kenya.

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