On Brexit, UK must put its best foot forward
At this crucial moment, even as the future is being decided, Tories are still struggling to understand the most basic aspect of the choices they have to make
he United Kingdom is squandering its best opportunity to shape European attitudes in its favour. Even as European Union governments are at their most open to influence, Downing Street is dithering. The EU is finalising its negotiating guidelines on the transition, deliberations over which are likely to follow the pattern seen last autumn: A long, painful spectacle in which Britain will concede nearly every point. Rather than getting it over with and moving on to what matters — the UK’s future relationship with the EU — the government looks set to waste more time fighting itself. In the meantime, European governments will be agreeing their position on the more important question of the UK-EU trade deal. Britain has a window of opportunity to influence that process, but the UK government is so divided that it cannot take advantage of it.
To see what could be, consider the position of Ireland. Brexit will have almost as big an impact in Dublin as it does in Britain, since half of all exports by Irish companies are bought by Britain and many have to cross UK territory to reach buyers in Europe. And although Ireland is a small nation, bullied by Europe’s larger states as it once was by the UK, it has a clever, energetic leader, a deep understanding of Britain and a strong interest in making sure Brexit doesn’t go pear-shaped.
Last week in Davos, the Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister), Leo Varadkar, directly contradicted Brussels dogma by saying that the EU should aim for a bespoke deal with Britain to take account of Ireland’s deep trading ties. Ireland’s preferred outcome would be for everything to stay the same — that is, for Britain to remain in the single market and customs union. But many of its politicians also understand that doing so could prove politically impossible, unleashing chaos in Westminster. They conclude, therefore, that it is in their interests to soften the hard line so far taken by France and Germany.
In other words, Dublin is a potential ally. It is not the only one. Several other northern European countries with strong UK trade ties have given signals suggesting they could take a pragmatic approach to Brexit, if the right arguments were made. Sweden has said explicitly that any Brexit deal should be extensive and go further than the EU’s deal with Canada. Denmark and the Netherlands have both commissioned reports showing the disruption their industries would suffer from failing to reach a deal and, at different times, suggested that a comprehensive trade deal would be in their interests. Luxembourg’s Prime Minister, Xavier Bettel, recently criticised the EU’s “binary thinking” on Brexit. Spain and Italy, while echoing French and German rhetoric more closely, have emphasised the importance of keeping Britain close.
All of these countries make pro-EU sounds and believe sincerely in the importance of EU projects such as the single market, but they are not quite as attached to its dogmas as France and Germany. It’s no wonder. The Franco-German engine has done more than any other alliance to shape the union, and its institutions therefore suit them best. The point, though, is not to sow division among Europe’s governments on Brexit. It is to help the moderates win the argument.
Finding fertile ground
Ireland’s politicians, for instance, talk hopefully about forging a northern European alliance with like-minded trading nations. On Brexit, there is talk in Dublin about drawing up a new framework for “a” customs union to facilitate trade, which could give Britain more flexibility than staying in “the” existing EU customs union. If the UK could look up, for just a minute, from the briefing wars in Westminster, it might well find fertile ground on the Continent for a reasoned argument about pragmatism, shared values and a model of free trade that doesn’t revolve around building a super-state.
The UK is counting on Ireland and likeminded nations to win the argument, softening the stance taken by Berlin and Paris. Government insiders point to unmoving polls and the steady state of the British economy as evidence that everything is fine. But the management of Brexit is in chaos and Britain shouldn’t be relying on its allies to manage it for the UK. When push comes to shove in the EU, it’s the big nations that tend to steamroller the smaller ones.
The UK is at a point in history when all the pieces have been thrown into the air. They could land in any formation. Yet at this crucial moment, even as the future is decided, Tories are still struggling to understand the most basic aspect of the choices they have to make. Britain’s allies can’t help it unless Britain helps itself. Juliet Samuel is a columnist for the Daily Telegraph.