The new great-power game over Maldives
The hard economic influence that emanates from Beijing has concerned policymakers and the strategic elite in New Delhi, as well as in Male
Remember the good old days, when China proudly proclaimed the principle of noninterference in other nations’ internal affairs and pledged never to build military bases overseas? That now seems like a longforgotten past. The current crisis unfolding in the Indian Ocean nation of the Maldives is a grim reminder of just how much times have changed: China has emerged in recent years, because of its economic ascent, as a neocolonial practitioner of predatory economics, which is sparking a new Great Game in the Indo-Pacific. In the words of former Maldivian Foreign Minister Ahmed Naseem, “What is happening in the Maldives is not just about democracy, it is about peace, security, and stability in the entire Indian Ocean neighbourhood.”
The Maldives has long been a foothold of the Indian sphere of influence in South Asia. Since both nations gained independence from Britain, India has played a major role in helping build the Maldivian economy, as well as in underwriting political stability in the country. India backed president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom for several decades, even sending troops to pre-empt a 1988 military coup attempt. As related in Sushant Singh’s book, Operation Cactus: Mission Impossible in the Maldives, Indian troops arrived at Hulhule airport in the Maldives just 16 hours after receiving a request from Gayoom.
However, it is simply a sign of the times that the continuity of the Indo-Maldives relationship has been shaken to the point it has been by external interference. An increasingly powerful and assertive China is melding its Belt and Road Initiative with its global maritime ambitions and brazenly challenging India on New Delhi’s home turf, the Indian Ocean.
Remarkably, before 2012, Beijing didn’t even have an embassy in the Maldivian capital of Male, given the smidgeon of diplomatic importance it assigned to the small atoll. Yet today, the country is awash with Chinese tourists, as well as large streams of Chinese foreign investment. A report by the Center for Global Development says the largest Chinese investment projects are an $830 million (Dh3.05 billion) upgrade of the airport, including a 1.3-mile bridge to link the airport island with the capital, which is a $400 million project. The Chinese are also building a 25-storey apartment complex and a hospital.
Hard economic power
The opposition party claims that these Chinese projects account for some 70 per cent of the total Maldivian debt, and $92 million a year in payments to China, roughly 10 percent of the entire budget. China has emerged as a ubiquitous presence in the Maldivian infrastructure, trade, and energy sectors. Additionally, China has signed a free trade agreement with the Maldives and has “leased the uninhabited island Feydhoo Finolhu for tourism use for 50 years”, according to the Asia Times. This hard economic power that emanates from Beijing, dwarfing India’s long-standing civilizational, diplomatic, and cultural overtures — as well as its own commercial outreach — has concerned policymakers and the strategic elite in New Delhi, as well as in Male.
It is important to consider that often, Belt and Road projects do not serve economic but rather geo-strategic, grand motives. Furthermore, these are not a slew of projects that have been shown to always be successful. In Sri Lanka, the Chinese-built international airport is a rarely used white elephant.
Opposition politicians accuse Maldivian President Abdullah Yameen of allowing a Chinese land grab of 16 islands and of inflating the costs for personal gain. Yameen’s Chinese connection has prompted popular protests, leading him to declare a state of emergency and arrest Supreme Court judges last month after they ruled for the release of opposition politicians. Additionally, it has raised global concern over what the United Nations human rights chief called an “assault on democracy”.
What has caught American attention however, are Japanese charges — complete with a video — that Maldivian tankers have been secretly transferring goods to North Korean-flagged ships in grotesque violation of UN Security Council sanctions.
The state of emergency Yameen declared after popular protests in reaction to his Chinese connection and what the opposition sees as a corrupt regime has caused a crisis. In addition to threatening stability in the region, the crisis has set back the tourist-dependent Maldivian economy and become the focus of international condemnation at a time when it already occupies a dangerous crux in an increasingly volatile region.
Robert A. Manning is a fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center for International Security at the Atlantic Council. Bharath Gopalaswamy is director of the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.