Al Sadr in reform push
HIS RISE THREATENS IRAN CLAIM TO SPEAK ON BEHALF OF IRAQI SHIITES
His rise threatens Iran’s claim to speak on behalf of Iraqi Shiites |
Iraq’s Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, whose coalition won the largest number of seats in Iraq’s parliamentary elections, has sought to reassure Iraqis about their next government, saying it will be “inclusive” and mindful of their needs.
No single bloc won a majority in the May 12 vote, raising the prospect of weeks or even months of negotiations to agree on a government. The electoral commission announced early on Saturday that the militant-turned-populist cleric, who has long spoken out against both Iranian and US influence in Iraq, had defeated his establishment rivals.
Al Sadr — who is remembered for leading an insurgency against US forces after the 2003 invasion — did not run for a seat himself and is unlikely to become prime minister, but will command a significant number of seats and has already begun informal talks about government formation.
Salah Al Obaidi, a spokesperson for Al Sadr’s Sairoon political bloc, said that Iraq’s sovereignty was going to be the new government’s “guiding principle.”
“We warn any other country that wants to involve itself in Iraqi politics not to cross the Iraqi people,” he said.
Al Sadr’s rise threatens Iran’s claim to speak on behalf of Iraq’s Shiite majority, a precedent that could fuel independent Shiite movements elsewhere. Also at stake are top ministerial posts — political appointments that are a source of patronage and police and military power.
Al Sadr himself has kept a relatively low public profile. But in a public relations move that appeared to be directed at Iran, he appeared on Thursday with rival cleric, Ammar Al Hakim, who has drifted away from Iran’s orbit in recent years, to say the two men share similar visions for the next government. Tehran has dispatched its top regional military commander, Gen. Qasim Sulaimani, to pull together a coalition to counterbalance Al Sadr, according to an Iraqi Shiite militia commander who is familiar with the meetings.
Al Sadr’s relationship with Iran is a complicated one. Though he has maintained close ties with Iran’s political and religious leadership, in recent years he has denounced the flow of Iranian munitions to Shiite militias in Iraq, all the while maintaining his own so-called Peace Brigades in the city of Samarra, north of Baghdad. Al Sadr’s former Mahdi Army militia, which spearheaded an insurgency against the US, clashed violently with the Iran-backed Badr Organisation last decade.
The militias plugged the gaps left by Iraq’s army as soldiers deserted their posts in the face of Daesh’s lightning campaign in the summer of 2014. With direction from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, they turned the tide. Iraq declared victory over Daesh last year. Al Sadr has said he wants the militias absorbed into the national security forces, a move Iran would find difficult to accept. Iran is also rankled by Al Sadr’s recent overtures to Gulf states.
It is unlikely Al Sadr can pull together a governing coalition without Iran-aligned political groups, which have the votes to form their own alliance that could challenge Al Sadr’s right
to name a prime minister.
An electoral alliance of the militias called Fatah, headed by Hadi Al Amiri, the commander of the Badr Organisation, won just seven seats fewer than Al Sadr’s bloc. Sairoon won 54 seats in Iraq’s 329-seat national assembly, a far cry from the 165 required to claim a majority.
The militias control the powerful Interior Ministry in the outgoing government and will expect a similar position of influence in the new one.
Al Sadr seems inclined to woo incumbent Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi, who appears to be wavering between Al Sadr and Al Ameri. But Tehran still holds considerable sway with Al Abadi’s Al Nasr bloc. That gives Iran
During our meeting, we agreed to work together and with other parties to expedite the process of forming a new Iraqi government.” Haider Al Abadi | Iraqi Prome Minister
Our door is open to anyone as long as they want to build the nation, and that it be an Iraqi decision.” Moqtada Al Sadr | Iraqi Shiite cleric
— and Al Abadi — leverage over Al Sadr to moderate his positions on the militias and Iran.
Hanging above the talks is the implied threat by all sides to mobilise their followers. The collective effect could be to push Al Sadr’s bloc towards a broader governing coalition that would dilute his reform agenda.