Rajoy’s longest week in politics
One minute he’s the prime minister of Spain, the next he’s a political has-been
For those who play the political game with the highest stakes, a week truly is a long time in politics. And no one knows that better right now that Mariano Rajoy, the ousted prime minister of Spain. He’s a man who has made it to the top of the heap in Spain by playing political hardball. No compromises at any cost — as the jailed and exiled separatists from Catalonia have found out these past nine months to their detriment. But the manner of Rajoy’s fall caught him off guard — and certainly brings a smile to those sitting in cells in Barcelona or under extradition proceedings in Germany.
Two weeks ago, in an upscale restaurant in the Spanish capital, Rajoy was tucking into a very hearty meal indeed. He’d successfully wooed the Spanish nationalist party Ciudadanos and the Basque Nationalist Party, PNV, to back his minority People’s Party budget, one that would give modest tax breaks to lower-income workers and meet expectations in an economy that’s expected to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2018. For all intents and purposes, the budget deal should have given the 63-year old two more years heading up Spain — making it eight altogether — and then setting the stage for retirement if he should choose then.
It was a good day.
The next morning, Thursday, the leader of the Socialists’ PSOE Pedro Sanchez — also the official opposition leader — gave a radio interview, saying he was off to Portugal the next day for a convention of leftminded thinkers and talkers. Ah, reporters reminded him, he’d be missing the verdict then expected in the Gurtel trial — and it could be a bombshell.
Rajoy had already made history last year when he became the first Spanish PM to testify in a criminal case. It centred on Francisco Correa, a businessman with close ties to the PP who was accused of paying bribes to party officials between 1999 and 2006 for public works.
And the verdict truly was a bombshell. Correa was sentenced to 51 years in prison, his ex-wife got almost 15 years — and Luis Barcenas was sent down for 33 years, his wife for 15 years. Barcenas, the PP’s former treasurer and once very close to Rajoy, was also fined €44 million (Dh189.4 million). But the judges went further, slapping the PP with a €240,000 fine. As far as the Spanish justice system is concerned, Rajoy’s party was complicit in corruption. The court went further, suggesting that Rajoy’s testimony wasn’t credible.
It was the beginning of the end, and Sanchez was just beginning to plot the end of Rajoy. No sooner had the handcuffs been locked and the paddy wagon dispatched to Madrid Central Booking than Sanchez was meeting with his closest advisers. And in the mix, was Ivan Radondo, an avid chess player who was carefully plotting the PSOE’s opening gambit. The PP’s reaction, however, was the catalyst. None of those convicted in the Gurtel case, the PP noted, were still in the party.
Rajoy? He believed he could weather the storm. But on Radondo’s urging, Sanchez was working the phones — just not to any PSOE people. He had been leader for just over a year and won the party race in a tight and bitter challenge; he was sending a clear signal to those who once opposed him he was the man in charge and he didn’t need their support now.
They composed the text of a no-confidence motion, and it was tabled the next day — before the PSOE executive had a chance to meet. And when Sanchez called senior party officials, like former PM Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, the response was a cold shoulder. No one believed he was serious about forming a government even if the no-confidence motion carried. There would have to be an election straight away.
Grist for the mill
For Podemos, the populist party led by Pablo Iglesias, the corruption scandal and verdict was grist for the mill. It was on-board for a no-confidence motion and wanted to see the end of Rajoy. Ciudadanos, however, wanted a snap election rather that backing a motion that would put Sanchez in the Prime Minister’s office.
Four days into the political horse-trading, the focus began to shift to just what the Basques would do. They were leaning towards abstaining, with their leader Andoni Ortuzar noting that it would be kind of hypocritical to support Rajoy’s budget one vote, then oust him the next. There was just one issue with that — they didn’t want to be seen as Rajoy’s saviour. Better then, if they abstain. If that happened, the prime minister would survive.
So far so good for Rajoy, it seemed. But Spanish politics is a complicated affair, made all the more complicated by regional loyalties. Iglesias and Podemos had been talking to everyone — they and Cuidadanos were prepared to file another noconfidence motion, solely with the intent of keeping Rajoy — and Sanchez — from power, and forcing an election. The last thing the Basques wanted, however, was a powerful Cuidadanos element that would look at its special arrangement for financing from the Madrid government. That budget they just backed days before allowed for heavy investment in the Basque heartland.
And that’s why, come the no-confidence vote, they threw their weight behind Sanchez. It helped, of course, that he gave a pledge that Rajoy’s budget would be respected.
Rajoy was simply out-manoeuvred in a chess game that the new Socialist leader played perfectly.
That election? It will come, maybe late this year, early next.
The Catalonians? There’s finally a way out of their crisis, with Sanchez saying he’s willing to discuss greater autonomy for the regions of Spain.
The Basques? They’ve kept a special deal, have a prime minister who owes office to them, and have delivered a rebuke to Cuidadanos.
Podemos? They have yet more evidence of corruption to feed their populist cause.
And Rajoy? Early retirement, a good pension — and more time to enjoy Madrid restaurants.