Al Sadr: An outlaw turned kingmaker
Iran is unhappy about cleric’s recent political popularity given his outreach to Gulf states and Iraqi Sunnis
Once described by Time magazine as the “most dangerous man in Iraq,” maverick Iraqi politician Moqtada Al Sadr is being showered with praise today, being branded an “Iran critic” and hailed as “kingmaker” after his list won 54 out of 329 seats in parliament last May.
His Sairoun list campaigned on anti-Americanism, for which Al Sadr is well-known, anti-corruption, anti-sectarianism, and clipping the wings of Iran in Iraqi domestics.
He is still short of a majority, however, which would require 165 seats in the Iraqi Assembly, but given the mediocreto-poor performance of all his main rivals, Al Sadr is likely to be highly influential in choosing who the next prime minister will be. As the cabinet formation unfolds, Iraq is dealing with the usual list of grievances.
Security issues are still a top concern, even though the terrorist group Daesh that swept through over a third of the country in 2014 has been largely eradicated.
On Wednesday, twin bomb blasts targeted a mosque in Sadr city, killing 18 and wounding 100. Many have accused the Interior Ministry, stacked with staunch Iranian allies, for orchestrating the attack.
Observers believed the attack intended to send a message to Al Sadr on his newfound relationship with Saudi Arabia. Al Sadr was quick to call for calm among his supporters.
Political journey
Al Sadr has come a long way since being described as an “outlaw” by US proconsul Paul Bremer back in 2003, when he led an armed insurgency against the Americans in southern Iraq and the Shiite slums of Baghdad.
Ten years ago, he disbanded his loathed Mehdi Army, and last week his top aide Diaa Al Assadi said there was no going back to militia-rule.
Al Sadr now carefully chooses his words, trying to come across as a populist and wellcrafted Iraqi statesman rather than a thuggish warlord.
He still banks heavily on his Shiite credentials, however, never missing the chance to remind people that he is the son of revered Ayatollah Mohammad Sadeq Al Sadr, who was assassinated in 1999.
Last summer, Al Sadr visited Jeddah, meeting with Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman and in Abu Dhabi he went on to meet His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, in an attempt to shed his image as a sectarian Shiite warlord.
He hoped by reaching out to powerful Sunni states he would be able to win back the hearts and minds of disenfranchised Iraqi Sunni voters.
Observers explain that Al Sadr’s shift towards the Gulf could be a direct result of a cutback in Iranian funds to Shiite politicians in Iraq, having shifted the bulk of its resources in recent years to more pressing issues like sustaining its war efforts in Syria, where it is bolstering the regime of Bashar Al Assad. For Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the reconciliation with Al Sadr also came with opportunities.
Observers believed it was a
Over the years Iran’s influence has also evolved. Now, Iran is less able to cobble together grand electoral coalitions compared to 10 years ago.”
Fanar Haddad | Iraq specialist
strategic choice on their part in order to confront Iranian meddling in their own backyard given Tehran’s long-held grip on Iraqi politics since 2003, when Saddam Hussain was toppled.
However, the Gulf was not planning to put all its eggs in one basket.
It also reached out to Iraqi Foreign Minister Ebrahim Al Ja’afari and Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al Abadi — both members of the ruling Iran-backed Da’awa party — as well as Ammar Al Hakim, another Shiite cleric, who for years had been on Iran’s payroll under his party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.
In fact, last year Al Hakim broke ranks with his party, forming another party which campaigned on non-sectarianism.
Complex political scene
The Iraqi political scene has evolved and become more complex over the years, explains Fanar Haddad, an Iraqi specialist at the National University of Singapore. In 2003, after Saddam’s fall, the issues were more straightforward and one-dimensional — mainly the de-Baathification of Iraq and restoring Shiites as a majority power.
“Over the years Iran’s influence has also evolved,” Haddad told Gulf News.
“Now, Iran is less able to cobble together grand electoral coalitions compared to 10 years ago. This is not because Iran has been left out of the political loop or is unable to pursue its interests in Iraq, but because the internal and external players are more dynamic than before,” he says.
Opponents of Al Sadr claim that gross fraud took place during May’s elections, and 173 parliamentarians have voted for a manual recount, blaming the error on electronic counting machines used for the first time.
About 11 million votes will be recounted, but on Thursday, Iraq’s election commission said it would appeal parliament’s order.