How Washington can destabilise EU

If Europe doesn’t feel the US is on its side, the risk is that individual European nations may turn to other geopolitical forces

As United States President Donald Trump heads to Europe this month for the Nato summit and then a historic meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, his personal attacks on the European Union and other pillars of the western order are overshadowing his own administration’s attempts to reassure allies that the US still believes in the trans-atlantic project it has led since the 1940s.

During a private meeting at the White House in late April, Trump was discussing trade with French President Emmanuel Macron. At one point, he asked Macron: “Why don’t you leave the EU?” and said that if France exited the union, Trump would offer it a bilateral trade deal with better terms than the EU as a whole gets from the United States, according to two European officials. The White House did not dispute the officials’ account, but declined to comment.

Let’s set aside for a moment the point that Trump’s proposal reveals a basic lack of understanding of Macron’s views and those of the people who elected him. This is an instance of the president of the US offering an incentive to dismantle an organisation of America’s allies, against stated US government policy.

Trump has been publicly trashing the EU and Nato since his campaign, but the pace of his attacks has increased. Just last week, at a rally in North Dakota, Trump said: “The European Union, of course, was set up to take advantage of the United States, to attack our piggy bank.” He then complained about a $150 billion trade deficit with the EU, inflating the figure.

Gratuitous public attacks

Other reports note that Trump recently told Group of Seven leaders that “Nato is as bad as Nafta,” [North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement] suggested to the Swedish prime minister that America should leave the Nato alliance, and launched gratuitous public attacks on German Chancellor Angela Merkel at her weakest moment. It’s a deepening trend.

Trump defenders often say he is simply throwing out ideas to see what sticks. Some say his motives are primarily political and domestic — or that he is more talk than action. Many cling to the hope that the president’s top diplomatic and military officials can still execute sound policy, reassure allies, manage Trump and head off any real catastrophe.

That was plausible during Trump’s first year in office, and European allies were relatively reassured. But during his second year, so far, Trump has shrugged off previous constraints. His new national security team can only try to tamp down fears and attempt to merge Trump’s “America First” mantra with a responsible strategy.

Efforts to reassure Europe are failing. European officials no longer believe Trump’s words can be discounted. They don’t see the alliance rift as routine or temporary. They don’t believe it’s possible to repair the transatlantic bridge in the middle of a Trump-sized earthquake. European countries have no choice but to hedge and seek alternatives to US leadership. “If you look at the world today, you realise the position of the West is going to be contested for the first time in several centuries,” former British prime minister Tony Blair told me. “And if the West is disunited, it’s going to be much less capable of withstanding that challenge.” If Europe doesn’t feel the US is really on its side, the risk is that individual European nations turn to other geopolitical forces, and this is bad for America, Blair added.

Of course, Trump’s opinions closely track those of Putin, including on the status of Crimea, aid to Ukraine and Russia’s interference in the US elections. Overall, Trump’s attack on the EU and the US-Europe relationship is a huge strategic windfall for Russia.

The US and Europe have had disputes before. It’s possible this one will get resolved eventually. Meanwhile, Trump is doing unnecessary damage. His intentional and egregious actions to undermine the EU, Nato and America’s relationship with both can no longer be discounted, rationalised or seen as anything but what they are — an attempt to undo the strategic infrastructure both America and Europe need more than ever.