US to reimpose Iran sanctions tomorrow
ECONOMIC WOES AND FINANCIAL CRISIS EXPECTED TO WORSEN
Iran yesterday acquired five new commercial aircraft as the US prepared to restore sanctions that had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear accord with world powers.
A wave of US sanctions will be reimposed tomorrow, cementing Washington’s tough stance against Tehran after President Donald Trump pulled out of the nuclear pact.
The arrival of the ATR72600 airplanes at Tehran’s Mehrabad International Airport represented perhaps the last benefits Iran will see under the nuclear deal. Economic woes are sparking sporadic protests across the country.
ATR, jointly owned by European consortium Airbus and Italy’s Leonardo, has been pushing US officials to allow it to finish its delivery of aircraft to Iran. The US Treasury must approve the sale of airplanes whose components are at least 10 per cent American-made, like the AT72-600.
As of 0401 GMT Tuesday, the Iran government can no longer buy US banknotes and broad sanctions will be slapped on Iranian industries, including its rug exports. Sanctions and diplomatic pressure could pile enough pressure on the regime that it comes to the negotiating table - something Trump has advocated.
The financial crisis in Iran could worsen to the point that ongoing mass protests make it impossible for the regime to hold on to power. Or the regime could start to address what America calls its “malign influence” in the region, including its support to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and threats to shut down the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for international oil supplies.
Trump’s pressure campaign appears to have had some results. The US has accused both the Iranian navy and the Guards of routinely harassing American warships in the Gulf in the past but this year there have been no such incidents. US pressure could force the regime to address what America calls its “malign influence” in the region, including its support for Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and threats to shut down the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Awave of US sanctions kicks in against Iran tomorrow cementing Washington’s hard line against Tehran after President Donald Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear pact.
Already facing broad economic fallout as their currency implodes, Iranians are wondering how the next phase of the crisis in US relations will play out — and what, exactly, America’s long-term strategy is toward their country.
At least for now, the US is fixated on bringing as much diplomatic and economic pressure to Iran as possible — though it is not clear where things are headed, or if there is an increased risk of conflict.
The US walked out of the 2015 nuclear deal in May and is bringing back “maximum pressure” sanctions for most sectors on August 6, and the energy sector on November 4.
As of 0401 GMT tomorrow, the Iran government can no longer buy US banknotes and broad sanctions will be slapped on Iranian industries, including its rug exports. After months of fierce rhetoric, Trump surprised observers last week when he offered to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani “any time” — and without preconditions.
The dramatic about-face, which Secretary of State Mike Pompeo quickly tamped down, came just days after the enigmatic US president and Rouhani traded barbs. Trump at one point unleashed a Twitter tirade in which he blasted, using all caps, Rouhani’s “DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE”. He was responding to a July 22 warning from Rouhani that the US should not “play with the lion’s tail” and warned that any conflict with Iran would be the “mother of all wars.”
Dialogue offer
Trump’s offer for dialogue came after Pompeo seemed to suggest support for a change in Iran leadership, telling an audience of Iranian expats in California that the regime had been a “nightmare”.
And John Bolton, the president’s national security adviser, is a well-known Iran hawk who has advocated regime change.
“For Bolton and others, pressure is an end in and of itself,” Suzanne Maloney, deputy director of the foreign policy programme at the Brookings Institution, told AFP.
For the administration, “if it leads to a wholesale capitulation fine, if it leads to regime change, even better,” she added.
Trump’s pressure campaign appears to have had some results.
For instance, US officials in recent years have accused both the regular Iranian navy and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps of routinely harassing American warships in the Gulf.
But this year, to the surprise of some military officials, there have been no such incidents.
If Iran senses “American steel they back down, if they perceive American mush they push forward — and right now they perceive steel,” said Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of Foundation for Defence of Democracies, a Washington think tank that lobbied for a renegotiation of the Iran nuclear deal. Dubowitz, who noted that Iran has tested fewer missiles of late, said Trump’s rhetoric and position on Iran actually lowers the risk of escalation toward conflict.
“He’s assuming that if he talks tough, that will bolster the credibility of American military power,” Dubowitz told AFP.
General Assembly
Both Trump and Rouhani are due to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York next month.
It’s not inconceivable a meeting on the sidelines could occur then — Tehran will be looking anxiously to a November deadline for oil buyers to stop purchasing Iranian crude.
Over the weekend Trump once again floated the idea of meeting, tweeting “I will meet, or not meet, it doesn’t matter — it is up to them!” “Iran, and its economy, is going very bad, and fast!” he said in the same missive.
US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis said on July 27 there was no policy that had been put in place with the goal of collapsing or changing the Iranian regime.
“We need them to change their behaviour on a number of threats they can pose with their military, with their secret services, with their surrogates and with their proxies,” Mattis said told reporters.
Sanctions and diplomatic pressure could pile enough pressure on the regime that it comes to the negotiating table — something Trump has advocated.
The financial crisis in Iran could worsen to the point that mass protests make it impossible for the regime to hold on to power — though economic pressures
risk galvanising growing antiAmerican sentiment and support for hardliners.
Or the regime could start to address what America calls its “malign influence” in the region, including its support to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and threats to shut down the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for international oil supplies.
“I think (the Trump administration) would be pleased with any one of those end states,” Dubowitz said.