Militia challenge to supremacy of state
ANALYSTS BELIEVE THE BEST WAY TO PROCEED IS TO STRENGTHEN DEFENCE AND INTERIOR MINISTRIES
Ever since the US invaded Iraq and toppled the regime of Saddam Hussain, armed Shiite paramilitary groups have been growing in prominence. Their influence peaked during the country’s war on Daesh, in which the Shiite militias, often armed and trained by Iran, played a major role. The militias, collectively known as the Hashd Al Shaabi, also have a hand in Iraq’s fiscal pie, receiving $1.63 billion in government funding for their operations and salaries of their fighters in 2017 alone.
On Friday, it was reported that Iran has given ballistic missiles to Shiite proxies in Iraq and is developing the capacity to build more there to deter attacks on its interests in the Middle East.
Now, a struggle is brewing in Iraq over the future of these powerful groups, which operate independently of the government. They pose a clear challenge to the social fabric of Iraqi society. They can also derail efforts to bring the country together after the defeat of Daesh.
In the ideal scenario, Iraq’s government should separate these non-state actors from politics and economic activity. But to a great extent, the government in Iraq is beholden to the paramilitary militias, given the structural and battlefield weaknesses of Iraq’s national army.
Analysts believe that the task is difficult but not impossible, and requires time. “This is the real challenge that the next government faces, and depending on the composition of that government, this task might be either extremely difficult or merely very difficult. However, it’s not impossible; it just will require time, and no new crisis,” Joost Hiltermann, the Middle East and North Africa Programme Director at the International Crisis Group told Gulf News.
“Iran has stated repeatedly that its support for paramilitary groups has been necessitated by immediate threats, such as the emergence of ...[Daesh] in 2014, but otherwise it supports the state and its security forces. Now is the time to put this assertion to the test. The best way to proceed is to strengthen the defence and interior ministries and the security forces under the authority of these two ministries in order to make them less reliant on paramilitary groups. This would have to be a gradual process.”
Successive governments in post-Saddam Iraq have been unwilling or unable to bring the paramilitary groups under state control. The Hashd are recognised as an autonomous unit under the civilian National Security Council. On the one hand, to operate independently, the paramilitaries take advantage of the weakness of the Iraqi state. On the other, their expansion and consolidation further weakens the institutions of the state.
Second place
Their central role in Iraqi politics was brought to the fore by the parliamentary elections held last May. The militia’s electoral bloc, the Fatah Alliance, came in at second place. However, Hiltermann underplayed the performance of the militias.
“The Sadrists [supporters of prominent cleric Moqtada Al Sadr] were the winners this time by a small margin, and they oppose the autonomy of the Hashd. We now have to see who will form the next government, and what role the political leaders of the Hashd will play. It is still too early to tell. If these leaders will be excluded from the government – which is doubtful – then the process of integrating the Hashd into the state will be adversarial, and therefore extremely difficult. If they will be part of the next government, they will try to block or slow down the integration process, but they won’t be able to actively oppose it, and in that case the process will merely be very difficult.”
Iran has advocated a prominent role for these paramilitaries in Iraqi politics, as evidenced by its support for Hashd leader Hadi Al Ameri and also Tehran’s aversion to popular cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, who has increasingly promoted a nationalist agenda and seeks to curb Iranian influence in Iraq. The performance of his electoral alliance in the May election means that he has emerged as the kingmaker in Iraqi politics.
Even if the Iraqi government attempts to check the power of the Hashd, an armed clash between state forces and the militias is unlikely. As Hiltermann noted, “That’s not how politics is done in Iraq. There will be an accommodation. The default will be that nothing changes. But hopefully there will be some progress in integrating the Hashd into the state.”
[Keeping militias out of politics] is the real challenge the next government faces, and ... this task might be either extremely difficult or merely very difficult. However, it’s not impossible.”
Joost Hiltermann | Middle East analyst