Weakened Florence still dangerous
WINDS AND WAVES BEGIN TO BATTER CAROLINAS AS LANDFALL LOOMS
Winds and waves began battering the Carolinas yesterday as officials warned that Hurricane Florence — while weakening slightly — remains a “very dangerous storm” capable of wreaking havoc along a wide swathe of the East Coast.
“Just because the wind speed came down, the intensity of this storm came down to a Cat 2, please do not let your guard down,” warned Brock Long, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema).
Florence was downgraded to a Category 2 storm overnight on the five-level SaffirSimpson scale but it is still packing hurricane-force winds of 165 km/h, the National Hurricane Center said.
Winds were already picking up along the coastline yesterday morning and Myrtle Beach was virtually deserted with empty streets, boarded up storefronts and very little traffic. “I was feeling fine until I woke up this morning and this is a ghost town,” said Kristin Beard, a 40-year-old Myrtle Beach marketer. “I’m going to Charlotte.”
At 11am (1500 GMT), Florence was over the Atlantic Ocean about 230 km eastsoutheast of Wilmington, North Carolina, and moving northwest at 17 km/h, the NHC said.
Steve Goldstein with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said Florence’s forward motion had slowed overnight and it was not expected to make landfall in the Carolinas for “another 36 hours.”
“Sometime Friday afternoon, Friday evening or Saturday morning,” Goldstein said. He said hurricane-force winds extend outward 130 km from the centre of the storm and tropical storm-force winds extend nearly 322 km out.
Just because the wind speed came down, the intensity of this storm came down to a Cat 2, please do not let your guard down.”
Brock Long | Fema administrator
For better or for worse, when most people think of hurricanes, they are most concerned about strong winds near the storm’s eye and damage along the coastline. Perhaps this is because we so often see hurricane coverage of meteorologists on the beach being pelted with wind-driven rain. Or because when they are over the ocean, hurricanes are usually depicted using satellite pictures and discussed in terms of maximum wind speeds. Or because some of the most dramatic photographs and videos of storm damage are taken along the coast.
But focusing too much on the coastal hazards near the eye of the storm can leave others unprepared. Messages that focus primarily on the coast may leave residents’ inland feeling like they aren’t relevant for them. This is a particular concern with Hurricane Florence: Even for those inland or off the eye’s path, flooding from heavy rainfall, along with high winds and extended outages of power and other essential services, are real and potentially deadly threats.
As researchers who study how to communicate about weatherrelated events, we’re often asked to comment on hurricane messaging and evacuation decisions. Do we, for example, have any recommendations for those communicating with the millions of people in the southeast United States who are currently in the path of Hurricane Florence? Our advice is: Don’t focus only on the hurricane category number. Don’t focus only on the track line. These types of information offer simple summaries that can grab people’s attention, but they neither convey full picture of the impending storm, nor show how people should prepare.
Regardless of whether Florence is a category 3 or category 5 hurricane, we know that it is a large, dangerous storm that will cause a lot of damage. We recommend focusing on the bigger picture, especially on what hazardous conditions the storm may produce and what people should be doing to stay safe during and after the storm.
Today’s media landscape is complex, and official sources are far from the only places people are getting information about an approaching hurricane. Technologies that were unimaginable only a few decades ago, have reshaped how many of us access and exchange information. Most people today get information from a wide variety of rapidly evolving sources, across multiple platforms. This provides new opportunities for “crowdsourced” risk communication and decision-making in addition to the more traditional message structure. While beneficial in many ways, these changes can make effective messaging and protective decision-making more challenging if conflicting information emerges.
Even the best weather forecasters and the most accurate computer models still can’t say exactly what the effects of Florence will be. These uncertainties mean that at this point, we don’t know precisely what risks are relevant for which people and in which areas. We do know that high winds, storm surge, inland flooding, and extended power outages are likely. What we know is that hurricanes, like many things in the world, are complex and cannot be fully summarised in a single number or line. ■ Cara Cuite is an assistant extension specialist at Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey. Rebecca Morss is a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. Julie Demuth is a research scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.