Why Afghan peace is vital for Pakistan

An unstable Kabul has damaged Islamabad economically, structurally and has left its society militarised and radicalised

Afghanistan has been battered for the last 40 years. Inhabited by the same tribe on either side of the Durand Line – the border demarcated in 1873 to create a buffer state between Czarist Russia and the British Indian Empire, the (Afghans) Pashtuns have more in common with their compatriots in Pakistan than any other. With the majority in Pakistan, the Pashtuns comprise nearly 40 per cent of the Afghan population. Pakistan therefore feels more heat from this war than any other neighbour.

Sceptical of Indian influence, Pakistan has always taken the Indian presence in Afghanistan as a direct threat to its national security. Pakistan’s “strategic depth” concept when it sided with the Americans to roll back the Soviet Union’s intervention in Afghanistan was a consequence of this fear. India and Russia are treaty partners that caused the dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971. Facing anxiety on the eastern border, Pakistan cannot afford insecurity in the west.

The dissolution of the Soviet Union has opened up possibilities for economic relations with energy-rich Central Asian republics, which has till now been thwarted by a troubled Afghanistan. If peace returns to Afghanistan under a friendly government the ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (Cpec) can be extended to include some of these states.

As China is growing as an economic power, so is its pursuit of global political engagement. It is therefore natural for China to develop links with countries on its borders. It is now Afghanistan’s third biggest trading partner and needs Afghan mineral resources. China is also actively courting Afghanistan to become a partner in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as its location makes it an important link for reaching south and for easier access into Central Asia. The success of regional connectivity in the ambitious plan is conditional to sustained stability in Afghanistan.

China in partnership with Pakistan and Russia wants the American presence to end, which is the reason for Afghan instability. At a lower level China cannot leave a vacuum for India whom the US is promoting to play a larger role in Afghanistan. China therefore stands behind Pakistan not to cede space to India or other nonregional players.

Waiting on the sidelines for the Americans to eliminate militancy in Afghanistan, Russia is now convinced that the US wants to stay for power projection in Russia’s sphere of influence. Russia has thus demonstrated renewed interest in Afghanistan. The attempts to engage with regional players for an Afghanistan solution coincides with Russia’s higher profile in defending its interests in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Russian interests have now also come to be demonstrated by the founding of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in partnership with China, which apart from other goals is meant to jointly contain American incursions into the region. With Chinese interests aligned, the SCO is a formidable group against American attempts to gain a foothold in the area sensitive to both Russia and China.

An unstable Afghanistan has damaged Pakistan economically, structurally, and has left its society militarised and radicalised. Afghanistan’s landlocked location and competing major nationalities mean peace in Afghanistan depends upon a positive regional environment with Pakistan at its core.

■ Sajjad Ashraf served as an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore from 2009 to 2017. He was a member of Pakistan Foreign Service from 1973 to 2008 and served as Pakistan’s consul general to Dubai during the mid 1990s.