A new face likely to emerge as Iraqi PM
After Al Sistani’s verdict, Al Abadi, Al Maliki and Al Ameri have all but pulled out of the race
Shortly after demonstrators torched the Iranian consulate in the southern Iraqi city of Basra earlier this month, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani declared that no old faces were entitled to the Iraqi premiership anymore. This sealed the fate of incumbent US-backed Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi, who has been in power since 2014.
As the highest religious authority in the Iraqi Shiite community, Al Sistani’s approval has been vital for every prime minister in Iraq since the 2003 US invasion. He is now calling for “a new face, known for competency, integrity, courage, and firmness”.
Iran is furious with Al Abadi, a former protege of Tehran who parted ways in mid-2017 and mended relations with the Gulf states, visiting Saudi Arabia twice. Recently, Al Abadi instructed Iraq’s central bank to stop doing business with Iran.
Iran believes Al Abadi failed to protect its consulate in Basra, and might have secretly encouraged its destruction.
Shortly after Al Sistani’s declaration on September 10, prominent cleric Moqtada Al Sadr — also a former ally of the Iranians — also backed out on Al Abadi. His support was essential, given that Al Sadr’s Sairoon bloc won 54 seats in last May’s parliamentary elections, making it the largest in the Iraqi Chamber.
Al Sistani’s verdict is also a slap in the face of Al Abadi’s main rival, former prime minister and current vice-president Nouri Al Maliki, who also entertained hopes of returning to power, after having been ejected in 2014. He has teamed up with the powerful commander of the Iraqi Mobilisation Units, Hadi Al Ameri, and former national security adviser Faleh Al Fayyad, both seen as Iranian proteges.
After Al Sistani’s verdict, Al Abadi, Al Maliki, and Al Ameri said that they would personally no longer seek the premiership, with the incumbent premier saying: “We are not going to hold on to power. We are committed to constitutional procedures and we respect the directions of the Marja’a, and respond positively to them.”
Speculation
Al Abadi was the last to withdraw from the race on September 18. His surrender has raised speculation that the premiership might end up with either Al Fayyad or Shiite heavyweight Adel Abdul Mahdi.
A senior commander of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) Mahdi is a Frenchtrained economist who served previously as oil and finance minister, then as vice-president of Iraq from 2005 to 2011.
Some lawmakers are speculating that Al Sistani’s verdict applies to any politician who assumed government office in the past and not just former prime ministers.
Iraqi analyst Wathiq Al Jabery told Gulf News: “Not all politicians who assumed office are blacklisted, but only those with a record of failure. There is no room to repeat that experience.” He believes the election of a new parliament speaker last Saturday will hasten resolution of the premiership dilemma, after lawmakers failed to do so in the first session of parliament on September 3.
Former ministers
“It also applies to former ministers as well,” said prominent analyst Najah Mohammad Ali, who noted the Shiite religious establishment doesn’t rule out Al Fayyad, nor do the Kurds.
“He is being marketed as a man of difficult missions,” who enjoys balanced relations with all parties concerned, locally, regionally, and internationally. He is even on good terms with the Russians and the Turks.”
Al Fayyad, a former prisoner under Saddam Hussain, was recently relieved of his duties as national security adviser while Al Ameri, a former minister of transportation, still commands the powerful Badr Organisation, set up with Iranian funds back in the 1980s to fight Saddam’s army during the Iran-Iraq War.
Mahdi is still powerful, unaffected by the political tug-ofwar of recent years. According to Najah Mohammad Ali, Al Sadr and Al Ameri have both decided to back Mahdi.
Ripple effects of Basra
The Basra demonstrators have snowballed in recent days, resulting in the deaths of 16 civilians and the burning of ambulances and hospitals. Apart from imposing a curfew, Al Abadi failed to address their grievances or to punish police officers stationed in Basra.
For the first time since the US occupation, the sectarian war in Iraq was no longer Sunni-Shiite but an internal division within the Shiite community, with pro-US figures on one side, led by Al Abadi, and Iran-backed others led by Al Ameri, Al Fayyad, and Mahdi, who also happens to be a former communist.
The two sides have been bickering over who controls the biggest bloc in Parliament.
Deprived of Al Sadr’s support, Al Abadi has just 45 out of 329 seats in parliament, while the Al Ameri/Al Fayyad/Al Maliki alliance boasts of 145.
If Al Sadr decides to back them after withdrawing support from Al Abadi’s Nasr Coalition, they would be acknowledged as the biggest coalition capable of naming a premier.
The matter is currently in the hands of the Supreme Federal Court, which is expected to issue its final say on the matter by the end of this week.
“I think we will get a prime minister with broad powers,” said Al Jabery, speculating that “independents outside the main blocs stand a higher chance.”