How will bitter battle impact the midterms?
Why the Kavanaugh nomination fight raises the stakes for US November polls
The bitter battle over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court has exacerbated America’s political divide and left many emotionally raw. It’s also given new definition to the high stakes of November’s election.
The turmoil surrounding Kavanaugh has transformed the midterms into something bigger than Trump, with implications that could endure long after his presidency. Both Republicans and Democrats contend the new contours of the race will energize their supporters in the election’s final stretch. And both may be right. Here is what it means for the mid-term elections:
Which party stands to gain the most in US?
Republicans may benefit most in the short term. Until now, party leaders including Trump have struggled to energise GOP voters, even with a strong economy to campaign on. But Republican operatives say internal polling now shows Kavanaugh’s acrimonious confirmation has given the party a much-needed boost. Republican voters now view Democrats as overzealous partisans following the public testimony by Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford.
Why are the Democrats in a weak spot despite the outcry?
“The Democrat strategy to capitalise on the ‘Me Too’ movement for the political purposes backfired on them,” Republican strategist Alice Stewart said of Democrats. “The fact that they were willing to use Dr Ford’s story that was uncorroborated to launch character assassinations on Judge Kavanaugh did not sit well with voters. A lot of people looked at this as a bridge too far.” Though Democrats still maintain an advantage in competitive House races, the past two weeks appear to have shifted momentum in the fight for the Senate majority back to the GOP.
Is it possible the mood of supporter base will swing again?
With just over four weeks until Election Day, there is still time for the dynamics to shift again. And the political headwinds from the Kavanaugh confirmation are unlikely to blow in just one direction. But in North Dakota, Republican Representative Kevin Cramer has pulled comfortably ahead of Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp, who voted no on Kavanaugh. GOP operatives say they’re also seeing renewed Republican interest in states like Wisconsin, where Democratic candidates for both Senate and governor have been polling strong. “It’s turned our base on fire,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Saturday, moments after the Senate confirmed Kavanaugh. To be sure, some tightening in the race was likely inevitable this fall. Most of the competitive Senate races are in states that voted for Trump by a significant margin.
How are Democrats handling the aftermath?
To Democrats, Kavanaugh’s assent to the Supreme Court in spite of decades-old sexual misconduct allegations will only deepen the party’s pull with female voters, including independents and moderates who may have previously voted for Republicans. Democrats point to the flood of women who have spoken out about their own assaults following Ford’s testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Party operatives also believe the optics of the allmale GOP panel that presided over the hearing struck a chord with female voters.
Women who live in suburbs, where some of the most competitive House races will be contested, have trended away from Republicans in recent polls and may be energised by the Kavanaugh debate.
Why are women so crucial to the midterm election results?
Women are playing a key role in the first midterm election since Trump’s 2016 victory. Fuelled by his statements about women and the #MeToo movement, a record number of women are running for Congress this year. Women who live in suburbs, where some of the most competitive House races will be contested, have trended away from Republicans in recent polls and may be energised by the Kavanaugh debate.
What will be the Republican strategy going forward?
Trump remains the fall campaign’s biggest wildcard. White House advisers and Republican senators are encouraging him to keep Kavanaugh in the spotlight in the campaign’s final weeks. But they’re aware that the president often struggles to stay on message and can quickly overshadow his political victories with new controversies.