Imran Khan must learn to balance power

The PTI’s lead has been eclipsed by its loss of crucial seats and, more importantly, the Punjab assembly to its arch rival, the PML-N

The ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) is not taking the results of Pakistan’s October 14 by-election well. The party’s lead has been eclipsed by its loss of crucial seats in both the National Assembly (NA) and Punjab Assembly to its arch rival, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

There were 11 NA seats and 24 provincial assembly seats that had been vacated — of which 11 were in Punjab. The PTI lost seats in the NA while the PML-N made gains both at the centre and in the Punjab provincial assembly. The current political standing of the PML-N is thus — the president of the PML- N and former chief minister Shahbaz Sharif is in jail while his brother and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif faces an uncertain future.

Out on bail, Nawaz awaits a judicial inquiry and trial over his alleged unexplained wealth.

However, the PML-N’s lowest point has been not so much the trials of the party’s bigwigs but losing Punjab to the PTI. Despite having the numbers, it failed to cobble together a government in the province, its primary seat of power, following the general election in July. For the PML-N, this might have sounded a death knell.

There is a saying in Pakistan, familiar to those who are well-versed with the murky politics here, “Get Punjab and you get control.”

Thus any victory, however small in the by-election, would be a lifeline at this point. Especially if there is any chance of regaining control of Punjab.

This is a real possibility as the PML-N gains numbers in the assembly and, if the party displays acumen and political dexterity in fanning dissent, in the form of disgruntled members already sniffing around to unseat Punjab Chief Minister Usman Buzdar, it could succeed in clawing its way up again. Even if such a possibility does not materialise, it could still recoup and form a formidable opposition to Buzdar’s government in the province.

Shahbaz’s untimely arrest before the by-election also drew sympathy for the PML-N in Punjab — something that went in its favour in the bypolls.

Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry’s explanation for the PTI’s loss to the PML-N in the byelection because of premier Imran Khan’s inability to canvass should serve a reminder to the PTI about its political future. It is also hard to ignore the alleged rigging of July blamed on the army despite the rejoinders issued by the Inter Services Public Relations Pakistan (ISPR). The by-election is being hailed as vindication of the rigging alleged by the opposition that has now re-emerged in strength.

However, if PTI numbers were boosted with help from other ‘sources’ in the general election, why was this not the case in by-polls?

It could be that those ‘sources’ believed that a clean sweep was necessary to break the PML-N and ensure a majority PTI government in July, but once the PTI was in place, it would be able to secure the few seats being contested in the by-polls.

The other objective of the July polls might have been to ‘help’ a compliant Imran, desperate for power after a long arduous struggle, and to once and for all cripple the old guard.

This does not mean that the PTI lacked strength or that the public were not desirous of a change of political leadership. But the way the electoral process was conducted in July was dubious to say the least. And, as Chaudhry also noted in the case of Imran, personality-led politics is a strong factor. The same goes for the PML-N and the PPP, which is now being steadily reinvigorated by Bilawal Bhutto.

Anyone in Pakistan with political savvy knows how crucial it is to maintain good ties with the military, the most powerful institution in the country. Despite the outward adherence to democratic norms, the balance of power between the executive, the judiciary and the military has been fragile and tricky.

All three need to be on board for formation of foreign policy, defence, governance and law and order. A head of state should know to balance this. The problem is that power injects wilfulness and defiance. And thus, the circus begins.

Instead of baring fangs at opponents, the PTI should focus on the economy and governance.

Blaming past government policies while crying hoarse about its magical economic revival plan this past year has not helped either. For now, the PTI should draw a lesson from its own victory.