US mulls exit from Russia nuclear pact

Bolton readies Moscow visit amid US concerns on missile treaty

President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, will visit Moscow this week for talks that may include telling Russian officials that the United States plans to withdraw from the landmark IntermediateRange Nuclear Forces Treaty.

While Bolton will discuss other topics with Russian officials, including North Korea, Ukraine and Syria, the 1987 accord between the US and the former Soviet Union is also expected to come up.

The INF treaty, negotiated by then-President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and ratified by the US Senate in 1988, required elimination of short-range and intermediate-range nuclear and conventional missiles by both countries.

The United States believes Russia is in violation of the accord. The New York Times said Bolton would tell Moscow that Washington planned to withdraw from the treaty. White House officials did not deny the report.

A senior Trump administration official said two administrations had tried to bring Russia back into compliance with the treaty. “Despite our objections, Russia continues to produce and field prohibited cruise missiles and has ignored calls for transparency,” the official said.

Withdrawing from the INF treaty could have major implications for US defence policy in Asia and towards its main strategic rival there, China, with which Trump is engaged in a trade war.

Implications for Asia

China is not a party to the treaty and has invested heavily in conventional missiles as part of an anti-access/area denial strategy, while the INF has banned US possession of ground-launched ballistic missiles or cruise missiles of ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometres.

“It has had major implications for Asia,” said Eric Sayers, who served as an adviser to former US Pacific Commander Admiral Harry Harris and is now an adjunct fellow at the Centre for a New American Security.

“This will give the Pentagon and Indo-Pacific Command new conventional options to restore the military balance in the theatre,” Sayers said.

Earlier this month, US Defence Secretary Mattis said Russia’s violation of the INF treaty was “untenable” and unless it changed course the United States would respond.

Washington believes Moscow is developing a groundlaunched system.