Gold likely to stage modest recovery

Banks and brokerages have cut their average gold price forecasts for this year and 2019 after the metal slumped to 19-month lows in August, but they still expect prices to stage a modest recovery, a Reuters poll showed yesterday.

Spot gold will average $1,273 an ounce in 2018 and $1,300 in 2019, according to the poll of 39 analysts and traders conducted this month. That compares with predictions in a similar poll three months ago of $1,301 for this year and $1,325 for next year.

Gold has suffered a torrid few months, with prices falling from $1,366.07 in January to $1,159.96 in August as a strengthening US dollar made gold pricier for buyers with other currencies and rising stock markets and US interest rates offered better returns.

But it has clawed back to around $1,235 an ounce as sharp falls on global stock markets in recent weeks revived interest in bullion as a safe place to park assets.

“Gold prices are still below where their fundamentals justify, especially if the current shift in risk appetite is sustained,” said Christopher Louney at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC). Economic and political risks are looming larger, which should benefit gold, said ETF Securities analyst Nitesh Shah.