Do the math

Looking at all four hands, we’d rather be in six clubs. Even seven clubs can be made with careful handling. It’s hard to imagine a bidding sequence that would get us to a club slam, however, and a six-heart contract is quite normal. The key to bringing home this slam is the trump suit. Crunching numbers is the bane of amateur players and the joy of expert players. Experts would enjoy sinking their teeth in to this one. It is complicated by the fact that East is ‘known’ to hold seven diamonds — at least that’s what it looks like after the lead of the nine. There are only six unknown cards in the East hand and it is most unlikely that four of them will be hearts. It is important to know that the contract will always succeed with a 3-2 heart split. South must cater to a possible 4-1 split, with West the big favourite to hold four. The normal play with this heart suit is to cash the ace and lead toward the king-jack. That wins whenever East has the singleton queen or 10, and of course anytime the trumps split 3-2. We’ll save you the math and tell you this about a 70 per cent chance. The alternative play of starting hearts by leading the jack and running it if West plays low also succeeds when trumps are 3-2, and also when West has four trumps to the queen. This is about an 83 per cent chance. Was it worth it to crunch those numbers? Only if you want to make this slam.