Key test for Modi as five states vote

Results could be a good gauge of whether voters will give PM a second chance in 2019

Five Indian states are going to polls from November 12, in a battle that could be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘midterm’ moment as he enters the last leg of his five-year rule.

Of the five states: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram, three are ruled by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and located in the socalled Hindi-speaking belt, a right-wing stronghold for many years.

Unlike Donald Trump who lost legislative muscle in the House of Representatives to Democrats, the outcome of these elections will not directly impact the Modi government’s ability to do business.

However, the results on December 11 will be the most definite indicator of Modi’s popularity and more importantly, tell us whether Indians will give him a second chance when they elect a new central government early next year.

Why are these states important?

These states send a total of 83 elected lawmakers to Parliament and the BJP has 64 seats or a quarter of 282 it won in the entire country. Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have been ruled by the BJP for the last decade and a half and Rajasthan for five years. It is important for the BJP to win at least two, if not all the three Hindi belt states. The poll results will set the mood of the nation, a trend that could stay till the general elections in April-May 2019. A setback in these five states has the potential to derail Modi’s re-election bid.

How is the BJP placed?

Opinion polls conducted in recent months indicate that the dice is heavily loaded against the BJP. The most recent one by Centre For Voting Opinions and Trends in Election Research (C-Voter) early this month showed a clear defeat for the BJP, a convincing victory for the rival Congress party in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana and a close fight in Chhattisgarh.

Opinion polls are known to have gone horribly wrong in the past but the C-Voter survey more or less reflects a trend predicted by other pollsters in the recent past.

However, an ABP NewsLokniti CSDS survey, also conducted in November, predicted a slight edge for BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. But most media commentators agree the BJP is on a tough wicket this time and although Modi remains the most popular leader, his charisma alone won’t be enough to deliver the votes.

To be fair to Modi, state elections are fought on local issues and performance of the incumbent determines the outcome.

A defeat in the states, however, will impact the prime minister personally and dent his carefully crafted image of a tall, invincible leader. In the last four-and-a-half years, regional leaders and chief ministers in the BJP system have largely become irrelevant or lack charisma, thanks to Modi’s overwhelming presence and his obsession to dominate headlines, not very different from Trump’s leadership style.

What are the issues?

Modi won the 2014 election promising corruption-free governance, development and economic growth. While the economy has grown at over 7 per cent under his rule, there is little job creation and minimal trickle-down effect for the masses. On governance, Modi faltered with his demonetisation misadventure and poor execution of GST tax reforms. The allegations of kickbacks in the Rafale deal has tarnished his image personally.

BJP chief ministers have also faced serious allegations of corruption and poor governance.

The BJP’s parent body, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), is aware of the electoral challenges ahead. That is why it has decided to fall back on time-tested emotive issues of the Ayodhya issue and cultural nationalism.

The results will decide which way the mood of the nation will swing — right or centre left.