A disaster waiting to happen in US
RECENT REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT PAINTS A GRIM PICTURE OF DAMAGED ENVIRONMENT AND A SHRINKING ECONOMY
A report on climate change and its impact paints a grim picture of damaged environment and a shrinking economy |
Amajor scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presented the starkest warnings to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States, predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming, the damage will knock as much as 10 per cent off the size of the US economy by century’s end.
The report, which was mandated by Congress and made public by the White House, is notable not only for the precision of its calculations and bluntness of its conclusions, but also because its findings are directly at odds with President Donald Trump’s agenda of environmental deregulation, which he asserts will spur economic growth.
Trump has taken aggressive steps to allow more planetwarming pollution from vehicle tailpipes and power plant smokestacks, and has vowed to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement, under which nearly every country in the world pledged to cut carbon emissions. Just last week, he had mocked the science of climate change because of a cold snap in the Northeast, tweeting, “Whatever happened to Global Warming?”
But in direct language, the 1,656-page assessment lays out the devastating effects of a changing climate on the economy, health and environment, including record wildfires in California, crop failures in the Midwest and crumbling infrastructure in the South. Going forward, American exports and supply chains could be disrupted, agricultural yields could fall to 1980s levels by mid-century and fire season could spread to the Southeast, the report finds.
Scientists who worked on the report said it did not appear that administration officials had tried to alter or suppress its findings. However, several noted that the timing of its release, at 2pm (local time) the day after Thanksgiving, appeared designed to minimise its public impact.
The report is the second volume of the National Climate Assessment, which the federal government is required by law to produce every four years. The first volume was issued by the White House last year. The previous report, issued in May 2014, concluded with nearly as much scientific certainty, but not as much precision on the economic costs, that the tangible impacts of climate change had already started to cause damage across the country. It cited increasing water scarcity in dry regions, torrential downpours in wet regions and more severe heat waves and wildfires.
The results of the 2014 report helped inform the administration of former US president Barack Obama as it wrote a set of landmark climate change regulations. The following year, the Environmental Protection Agency finalised Obama’s signature climate change policy, known as the Clean Power Plan, which aimed to slash planetwarming emissions from coalfired power plants. At the end of 2015, Obama played a lead role in brokering the Paris Agreement.
But in 2016, Republicans in general and Trump in particular campaigned against those regulations. In rallies before cheering coal miners, Trump vowed to end what he called Obama’s “war on coal” and to withdraw from the Paris deal. Since winning the election,
his administration has moved decisively to roll back environmental regulations.
The report puts the most precise price tags to date on the cost to the US economy of projected climate impacts: $141 billion (Dh518.59 billion) from heat-related deaths, $118 billion from sea level rise and $32 billion from infrastructure damage by the end of the century, among others.
The new report emphasises that the outcomes depend on how swiftly and decisively the US and other countries take action to mitigate global warming. The authors put forth three main solutions: Putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions, which usually means imposing taxes or fees on companies that release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere; establishing government regulations on how much greenhouse pollution can be emitted; and spending public money on clean-energy research.
A White House statement said the report, which was started under the Obama administration, was “largely based on the most extreme scenario” of global warming and that the next assessment would provide an opportunity for greater balance.
Disrupting productivity
America’s farm belt is likely to be among the hardest-hit regions, and farmers in particular will see their bottom lines threatened. “Rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, wildfire on rangelands and heavy downpours are expected to increasingly disrupt agricultural productivity in the US,” the report says. “Expect increases in challenges to livestock health, declines in crop yields and quality and changes in extreme events in the United States and abroad.”
There is always some uncertainty in climate projections, but scientists’ estimates about the effects of global warming to date have largely been borne out.
The variable going forward, the report says, is the amount of carbon emissions humans produce.