Modi ‘will be ousted in 2019 elections’
RULING OUT A REPEAT OF 2014, BJP EX-LEADER SAYS PREMIER IS A THREAT TO DEMOCRACY
Former finance minister Yashwant Sinha, a vocal critic of the prime minister, in an exclusive interview |
In recent years, India’s former finance minister Yashwant Sinha has emerged as the most vocal critic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Sinha, who until recently was part of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), last month filed a petition in Supreme Court accusing the Prime Minister of “criminal misconduct” in an $8 billion (Dh29.38 billion) deal between India and France to purchase Rafale fighter aircraft.
Sinha was the country’s finance minister from 1998 to 2002 and also held the foreign portfolio from 2002 to 2004 in the Vajpayee Cabinet.
Since 2014, Sinha has attacked Modi for what he describes as “mishandling” of the economy, stifling democratic institutions and media. Last week, he was in Dubai to attend the alumni celebrations of Aligarh Muslim University’s foundation day.
In an exclusive interview, Sinha predicted Modi will be ousted in parliamentary elections due early next year:
You recently said Modi will not be re-elected in 2019. What makes you so confident?
If you look at the results of 2014, the BJP did extremely well in the Hindi heartland.
If you take four of the largest states, Uttar Pradesh, I am counting Bihar-Jharkhand as one state and the fourth state is Maharashtra, these return the largest number of seats — 182 — and the BJP had a score of 145.
They did extremely well and it was a better strike rate than ever. That is the reason why the BJP, which was non-existent in many states, was able to get many seats on account of a better strike rate in the four states.
Then, in the second category I will put states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Delhi where they scored 100 per cent. So, in all these states if the Opposition parties get together then, as the bypolls have shown, it is going to be very different kind of result.
My confidence is borne out of the fact that 2014 will not be repeated, the atmosphere today is very different than it was in 2014, people are disappointed... frustrated and angry. They will get far less numbers and won’t be able to form the government.
There is one assessment that Modi himself may not be able to become the prime minister but someone else from the BJP will.
I will tell you from my experience of the BJP, that’s a very misleading theory in the sense that, given the kind of grip that Modi and Amit Shah have over the party, it is impossible for anyone else to be elected even if the BJP goes down to 150 seats.
What about the RSS? Does it have no control over Modi?
The RSS has no control over Modi. Modi has complete control over the RSS and the RSS will do as it is told by him.
In the event of Modi losing 2019, what are the three things his successor should do?
The crisis in India today is the crisis of democracy. What has happened in the last four-anda-half years is that the institutions of democracy, the conventions of democracy, traditions of democracy have been completely given a go by.
Therefore, like it was in 1977, the first task of the new government should be to restore democracy in the country — the primacy of democratic institutions.
Can you be more specific?
I will be more specific. When I am talking about the institutions, let me begin with the Cabinet. Collective decision making has to be restored.
In today’s government, it is one person who is making the decisions and most important decisions are not even shared with the minister in charge. The most senior ministers are unaware of decisions being taken relating to their own ministries!
For instance, the finance minister who is supposed to be very in with Modi and Shah didn’t know about demonetisation. The then defence minister Mr Parrikar did not know about the Rafale deal, he learnt about it from the media. I can talk about home and external affairs ministries where they are not kept in the loop and [when] decisions are taken they get to know about it from the media.
So, the collective decision making of the Cabinet and collective responsibility of the Cabinet doesn’t exist. Parliament has been taken for a ride!
The budget this year was passed without one minute of discussion, a vote of no confidence was not taken up... the government in violation of all the conventions made Aadhaar a money bill.
Then you take the Supreme Court... in the Sabarimala case, the ruling party of the country led by its president is opposing [the court order], openly and calling people to revolt.
The Election Commission, look at what is happening to Reserve Bank of India, look at what’s happening to the CBI?
So, institutions which have played a vital role and most of all the media... the media has become completely pliant.
People take extreme positions on Modi. Some say he is the best prime minister in recent decades and he cannot do anything wrong. There is another extreme view that he is a threat to democracy. Do you support this view?
I watched the situation, listened to what people had to say and then I myself came to the conclusion that he is a threat to the democracy.
At that point of time, I decided to raise my voice despite the fact that I was in the same party.
[Modi] thinks he is right and nobody else matters in the system. It was not like this during Vajpayee’s time.
Are you disappointed that other senior BJP leaders, including Mr Advani have not spoken up?
They should have spoken up, I am very surprised and shocked... that is a disappointment. I must confess to my disappointment because he [Advani] was a strong voice against Indira Gandhi’s emergency and everybody else who is part of the government has not spoken up.
I decided to raise my voice despite the fact that I was in the same party. [Modi] thinks he is right and nobody else matters in the system. It was not like this during Vajpayee’s time.”