Bond-market bargain clouds Bahrain’s outlook for reform
Country’s dollar debt has been hurt by crude’s slump in the past two months
Bahrain became a darling this year after its Gulf neighbours helped to ward off any default. But falling oil prices have put the island kingdom’s finances under scrutiny again.
After outperforming Gulf peers in the third quarter, Bahrain’s dollar debt has been hurt by crude oil’s slump in the past two months. Investors are concerned about the government’s ability to put an austerity plan into action, with oil prices below what it needs to balance the budget. Bahrain’s cost-cutting targets, aimed at eliminating the budget deficit by 2022, are ambitious, Fitch said in October.
“Gulf Cooperation Council loans will help pull Bahrain back from the brink, but without meaningful fiscal reform, they just kick the can down the road,” said Brett Rowley, the Los Angeles-based managing director for emerging markets at TCW Group Inc, which holds about $198 billion. In addition, “a sharp drop in oil prices could jeopardise recently pledged assistance,” he said.
TCW held Bahrain bonds as of end-September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The nation’s bonds remain the best performers among Gulf peers this year, returning 3.8 per cent, according to Bloomberg Barclays indexes. Their inclusion in JPMorgan Chase & Co. emerging-market bond indexes starting end-January is cushioning the blow, according to Arqaam Capital, a Dubai-based investment bank.
Bahrain is the biggest beneficiary of index inclusion among Gulf peers, said Abdul Kadir Hussain, the head of fixed income at Arqaam. Based on the index weightings, flows into Bahrain will be as much as 45 per cent of its outstanding bonds.