A year after Daesh, Iraq still faces political crisis

POLITICIANS NOW FORCED TO CONFRONT DEEP-ROOTED DILEMMAS

Ayear since Iraq announced “victory” over Daesh, the country finds itself in the throes of political and economic crises left unresolved during the long battle against militants.

Unified against the common menace of Daesh, Iraq’s political elites are now at loggerheads over the drawn-out formation of a cabinet as the threat of renewed popular protests looms.

After decades of nearly backto-back wars, Iraq’s decisionmakers are now forced to face deep-rooted dilemmas left festering for years. “In Iraq you’ve seen many ‘missions accomplished’,” said Renad Mansour, senior fellow at Chatham House in London.

“But as usual, the much more challenging victory is the political victory - which has always been left for another day.”

Five months after Baghdad declared its win, the country held legislative elections that did not produce a clear governing coalition. Then-prime minister Haider Al Abadi failed to hold on to his position despite claiming credit for victory, as people turned to populist parties who tapped anger over corruption.

Power struggle

The ongoing power struggle among various parties has stymied efforts by new premier Adel Abdul Mahdi, widely seen as a weak consensus candidate, to form a government.

In October, Abdul Mahdi managed to fill 14 of the cabinet’s 22 posts, but repeated efforts to hold a parliamentary vote on the remaining eight, including the key interior and defence ministries, have failed.

“The distribution of power, the race to acquire as many government positions as possible under the guise of real competition between parties - that is at the root of the problem,” Iraqi political analyst Jasem Hanoun told AFP.

“Iraq is still living in a transition period, without political stability or a clear administrative vision for the country.”

As the process drags on, observers have wondered whether Abdul Mahdi could step down, further destabilising a country just getting back on its feet.

But the thorny issues facing Iraq extend beyond the capital.

Country in ruins

Much of the country remains in ruins after three years of ferocious fighting, including large swathes of one-time Daesh capital Mosul and the northern Sinjar region.

Violence has dropped across Iraq, according to the United Nations, which recorded the lowest casualty figures in six years in November with 41 civilians killed.

But the threat of hit-andrun attacks lingers. Observers are also worried that the bitter squabbles among Iraqi’s political forces could turn violent.

One scenario would be a conflict among the country’s competing Shiite factions, which he said would be a “disaster”.

But another major fault line divides Iraq’s entrenched politicians and an increasingly frustrated public.

Deadly protests in the summer of 2017 saw tens of thousands turn out over unemployment, a lack of public services, and accusations of corruption.

“Summertime will be a test for Abdul Mahdi,” Mansour said.