Modi’s UP headache: Two strange bedfellows and Rahul’s ‘surprise’ T

ill the end of 2017, there was no doubt that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political rivals would have to sit in the opposition till 2024. His re-election in 2019 was a forgone conclusion, many observers had thought. Then, something began to change towards the beginning of 2018 and by the time the year ended, Modi no longer appeared invincible.

Make no mistake. He remains the most powerful and the most popular leader in India. Yet, his supporters would be foolish to believe that 2019 would be a cake walk and a clean sweep for him.

His popularity has taken a hit because of a number of reasons — farm distress, growing unemployment, bungling tax reforms, Rafale corruption allegations and demonetisation.

Also, there is a growing public perception about his alleged proximity to a few big corporate houses. Modi and his supporters have another big reason to worry about. Powerful regional parties, including rivals, are coming together to mount a united challenge against Modi in key states.

One such alliance was announced in Uttar Pradesh on Saturday by socialist Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, outfits with strong support among Dalits and backward communities. The two parties have joined hands to fight 76 out of 80 seats in UP, from where Modi’s 71 lawmakers were elected in 2014.

Statistics of 2014 elections show that both the SP and the BSP jointly polled 42.12 per cent votes, marginally less than Modi’s 42.63 per cent. However, 2019 is not 2014 when Modi’s popularity was at its peak.

Also, UP is ruled by Modi’s party colleague Yogi Adityanath, who runs a hugely unpopular government and his performance will have an impact on 2019 elections. Both these factors will mean that Modi’s party will get significantly less votes in 2019.

Two, the SP and the BSP have kept Modi’s main challenger Rahul Gandhi out of this game as part of an elaborate strategy. Gandhi’s resurgent Congress will eat into the vote share of Bharatiya Janata Party which has a strong support base among the middle class and upper caste.

Also, in an interview with Gulf News on January 7, Gandhi said Congress will have a “surprise or two” in UP.

My guess is that he is trying to persuade his lawmaker cousin Varun Gandhi to dump the BJP and join the Congress. If that happens before elections due in April-May, the two cousins can muddy the waters further for Modi.

Finally, it is hard to believe that the SP and the BSP have announced this alliance without any understanding with the Congress. Gandhi, in fact, avoided attacking the two parties when Gulf News asked a question on the alliance and said his primary goal is to see Modi’s ouster, an objective shared by the SP’s Akhilesh Yadav and BSP leader Mayawati.