THE PREVAILING SCENARIO AND WHAT LIES AHEAD
New Delhi: With India’s national elections barely months away, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is under heavy pressure from his supporters to punish neighbour Pakistan for a suicide attack on an Indian paramilitary convoy that killed at least 45 soldiers in Kashmir.
A look at some of the steps India is likely to consider:
Diplomatic isolation
India’s first public reaction to the attack was to withdraw the most-favoured nation trade status given to Pakistan and take all possible diplomatic steps “to ensure the complete isolation from international community of Pakistan”. India’s Foreign Ministry on Friday briefed New Delhi-based diplomats of key countries, including China, which has in the past blocked India’s proposal to list Jaish chief Masoud Azhar as a designated terrorist by the United Nations.
Military strikes
The Times of India newspaper reported yesterday that the military options — short of two nuclear-armed rivals going to war — could range from “shallow ground-based attacks and occupation of some heights along the Line of Control (ceasefire line) to restricted but precision air strikes against non-state targets in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.” Paul Staniland, a professor of Political Science and South Asia expert at the University of Chicago, said the Pakistan Army was assuming it would be attacked and that Indian forces were preparing for a serious incursion.
Domestic pressure
Indian analysts say no political party could afford to neglect public opinion ahead of national elections. “I think the situation is extremely tense. The mood in the country is extremely angry at what has happened. And moreover there are elections in the offing. No party could afford to neglect public opinion,” said Amitabh Mattoo, professor of International Studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.
US response
The United States singled out Pakistan in a statement condemning the attack and said it strengthened US resolve to bolster counterterrorism cooperation with India. To improve India’s military capabilities, the US has offered to sell it unarmed Guardian surveillance drones, aircraft carrier technologies and F-18 and F-16 fighter jets.
The Himalayan puzzle
Indian-administered Kashmir has remained a challenge for India’s policymakers ever since the Himalayan territory was split between India and Pakistan shortly after the two arch-rivals gained independence in 1947. The territory has been at the heart of India’s two wars out of four the country fought against Pakistan and China. New Delhi initially grappled with largely peaceful antiIndia protests. However, a series of political blunders, broken promises and a crackdown on dissent led to Kashmir’s eruption into a full-blown armed rebellion against India in 1989.
View from Pakistan
After Imran Khan took over as Pakistan’s prime minister last August, he promised to take two steps forward for India’s one step to forge friendly ties. He said Kashmir is at the core of their differences and they have to end the tit-for-tat accusations. But the peace initiative remained a non-starter with violence rising in the Indian-administered portion of Kashmir and India asking Pakistan to stop supporting insurgents. Khan has now proposed to hold talks with India after the Indian elections.