Syria has few options to cope with fuel sanctions

Iran and Russia using fuel crisis as leverage on Al Assad

The Syrian regime is scrambling to deal with its worst fuel crisis since the war began in 2011, aggravated by United States sanctions targeting oil shipments to Damascus.

There was temporary relief when reserves or smuggled oil made their way to the market. Long lines outside gas stations slightly receded, as did public panic that had translated into widespread criticism of regime policies.

But more dramatic measures are necessary for the regime of President Bashar Al

Assad, which needs to procure more than 75 per cent of its fuel from outside sources.

Experts say Damascus either has to regain control of oil-fields in the east, currently controlled by the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), or replace oil supplies that used to come from Iran with new ones from Russia — at a political cost.

Regime forces and their allies could make a quick move on the east if Washington goes ahead with talk of withdrawing its troops based there and working with the SDF. A US withdrawal would also offer Turkey a chance to launch its own assault to push away the SDF, which it considers a threat.

Eventually, an offensive on the east is inevitable, said Fabrice Balanche, a Syria expert at the University of Lyon.

For now, Syria needs oil. Domestic production this year reached 24,000 barrels a day — only around 20-25 per cent of total needs — down from 350,000 barrels a day before the war. Regime officials say they need $2.7 billion (Dh9.93 billion) worth of subsidised fuel every year. Iran, which offered vital military support to Al Assad, was the main provider. But Tehran is feeling the heat as the US squeezes sanctions tighter.

Two main allies

Russia can offer a stable supply to replace Iran’s. But to get it, Al Assad may have to recalibrate ties with his two main allies, Moscow and Tehran, which have different interests in Syria.

“The question is what Al Assad can offer in return and how profitable that will be for Russia,” said Kirill Semenov, Moscow-based Middle East analyst and a non-resident expert at the Russian International Affairs Council.

Last week, the Syrian regime announced plans to lease the port of Tartous to Russia for 49 years for business. Russia already leases part of the port for its naval base.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov met Al Assad in Damascus at the end of last month and said the Russian lease of the port would boost bilateral trade and benefit the Syrian economy. Syrian Minister of Transportation Ali Hammoud said Stroytransgaz, a leading Russian oil and gas company, would expand the port to more than double its current capacity and inject more than $500 million.

David Butter, an energy expert at Chatham House, said both Iran and Russia are using the fuel crisis as leverage on Al Assad.

AP A former farmer at a primitive refinery in a village controlled by the United States-backed Kurdish group, in Rmeilan, Hassakeh province, Syria, last year. As a fuel shortage crisis deepened in Syria, new rationing measures were rolled out by the government.