HAS LEBANON LEARNT FROM HARIRI’S DEATH?
15 years after prime minister’s assassination, Lebanese struggle to keep country together economically and politically. Protests that began on October 17, 2019 refuse to abate. |
The Valentine’s Day car bomb blast that killed Lebanon’s billionaire Prime Minister Rafik Hariri 15 years ago on this day continues to have a drastic impact on the small Mediterranean country.
As Lebanon grapples with economic strife and a liquidity crisis, the ramifications of Hariri’s assassination are still crippling the country, disrupting its economic growth and political development.
WHY ARE THE LEBANESE PROTESTING?
Lebanon has been gripped by anti-corruption and antigovernment protests since October 17 last year. Protesters have been rallying and calling for reforms and the downfall of the political class that they consider corrupt and inefficient. Political clans that have been in power since 1992, have been blamed for the worsening financial and economic crisis.
“The assassination brought a devastating impact on Lebanon and was so disruptive that it took the country off track,” Sami Nader, a senior political analyst and Director of Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs (LISA), told Gulf News. “Lebanon was on the track of reconstruction. There was a balance of power that was necessary to ensure stability and this balance got disrupted. We saw Lebanon drifting by the day towards the Iranian axis and [eventually] becoming more aligned with Iran,” he said.
HOW IS THIS CONNECTED TO HARIRI’S KILLING?
The assassination of Hariri — who was also a billionaire businessman — brought the Lebanese together in unprecedented ways. The Cedar Revolution was triggered by Hariri’s assassination and became a pivotal event in the country’s history, uniting various sectarian and social groups.
“You cannot talk about Hariri’s assassination without mentioning the Cedar Revolution, which was a building block in our history,” Nader said. But the Cedar Revolution didn’t succeed socially and culturally and ended up being hijacked by traditionalist forces, he added.
HAS LEBANON TILTED TOWARDS IRAN AS A RESULT?
Nader said Lebanon was struggling because its economy and security had been exposed to what is happening in the region. “Most importantly, Lebanon today is isolated from the international arena because of the gradual drift towards the Iranian axis, and [due to] Hezbollah getting the upper hand in domestic politics.
“Lebanon has seen its relations deteriorate with its Arab neighbours and with the international community … don’t forget that Hezbollah is seen as a terrorist entity by the GCC countries, Washington and key European countries. This hinders Lebanon’s attempts to solve its economic problems,” he said.
DID THE ASSASSINATION PAVE THE WAY FOR A NEW KIND OF POLITICS?
Fellow political science university professor and researcher Professor Michel Douaihy considers that Hariri’s assassination was the first big political assassination since the end of Lebanon’s Civil War in 1990. “A brutal assassination of the leader of one of the biggest communities in the country, and the way it happened, was obviously an attempt to introduce a new way of doing politics in town. It meant no opposition was allowed to the Syrian presence/ occupation of Lebanon, which was backed by the Iranian regime,” Douaihy told Gulf News.
SO WHAT HAS CHANGED AND WHAT REMAINS THE SAME?
Earlier this week, new Lebanese Prime Minister Dr Hassan Diab’s cabinet won 63 votes in the Lebanese parliament, securing a stable government for the time being. “The assassination was a key point of reference in modern Lebanese history, so there is a post- and pre-assassination [situation]. Since the assassination, the country has been mismanaged by the same old parties, and one of the parties is accused of masterminding Hariri’s killing,” Douaihy said.
“Lebanon is really struggling because political institutions aren’t working, the economy has collapsed and due to the awful mismanagement by the political class for the last 30 years,” he said.
HOW DID HARIRI’S ECONOMIC POLICIES IMPACT LEBANON?
On whether Hariri was to be blamed for any of what is happening today, Douaihy said his economic policies were neoliberal in the sense that they relied heavily on policies developed by the IMF and the World Bank.
“Those policies don’t work in third-world countries where corruption greatly impacts the economy. Hariri also had issues working with political classes that emerged from the war, namely warlords. Sometimes he seemed OK. I’m really not sure how he would’ve dealt with what happened in the past four months. His economic policies were disastrous. This country cannot be built on an economy based on services, banking, insurance or real estate, it needs serious economic reforms and changes, which he wasn’t a fan of,” he said.
HOW DO THE NEW GENERATION OF LEBANESE SEE THE ASSASSINATION?
According to Douaihy, the new generation that took to the streets of Beirut on October 17 were either not born or were very young when Hariri was in office. “So they have no position, for or against, his policies. They really had no emotional connection with this assassination, so this is why it is very important, in the sense, that the October 17 movement has really ended the political rhetoric of the March 14 and March 8 [political groupings] that were created after the assassination. What has happened in the past four months has effectively buried the legacy of the postassassination political scene in Lebanon,” he said.
The assassination brought a devastating impact on Lebanon and was so disruptive that it took the country off track.” Professor Michel Douaihy | University professor and researcher
Lebanon today is isolated from the international arena because of the gradual drift towards the Iranian axis.” Sami Nader | Director of Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs