What happens after Al Sistani, Iraq’s aging Shiite powerhouse?
His death would rob Iraq of a powerful voice crucial to curb Iranian influence
When Iraq’s top Shiite cleric underwent surgery for a fractured bone last month, it sent shivers around the country and beyond. “May God heal Iraq,” read a photo of Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani that circulated online.
Frantic supporters shared prayers while anti-government protesters hung photos of the black-turbaned cleric with a long white beard and bushy eyebrows, declaring, ‘The hearts of the revolutionaries are with you’.
The incident put into focus the question: what will happen after Al Sistani, who turns 90 this year, is gone? The question has gained added importance for an Iraq deeply embroiled in US-Iranian tensions and gripped by months of antigovernment protests.
Al Sistani’s death would rob Iraq of a powerful voice whose sway among followers and positions against foreign intervention are believed to have curbed further Iranian influence. He sought to restrain Iranian-backed Shiite militias accused of abuses and moderate the government,
■ repeatedly stating that the Iraqi people are the source of authority.
Iran, analysts say, will likely try to exploit the vacuum to expand its influence among Iraq’s Shiites.
Exploiting the vacuum
The Iranians “don’t want another Al Sistani... They don’t want somebody who is strong, who overshadows their own supreme leader,” said Abbas Kadhim, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council. While none of Al Sistani’s potential successors are “in Iran’s pockets,” Tehran can benefit from a weak figure.
“If this person is silent and doesn’t intervene, people will look elsewhere for guidance,” Kadhim said.
Iran’s post-Al-Sistani ambitions may be complicated by Iraq’s wave of protests since October, which showed a vein of resentment among Shiites to Tehran’s power. Many Iraqis have also been angered at how US and Iranian hostilities have played out on their soil, including last month’s US drone strike that killed top Iranian general Qasim Soleimani in Baghdad.
Al Sistani has been a counterweight to Iran, not only in politics. He represents a school of thought in Shiism opposed to direct rule by clerics, the system in place in Iran, where Khamenei has the final word.
Al Sistani and Khamenei both hold the rank of marja taqlid, or ‘object of emulation’, a figure that Shiites revere as a spiritual guide. But the majority of Iraq’s Shiites follow Al Sistani, as do many in Iran and around the world.