WHAT IS THE NEXT STEP?
Countries are opening up at a time when coronavirus is claiming more lives in many parts of the world. Governments and experts seem to differ on the way forward — how to protect people from virus without impacting their livelihood.
Two months ago, when there were roughly one million confirmed coronavirus cases and the primal politics of survival was sweeping the world, shutting down was the order of the day across continents.
This week, the number of cases soared past seven million, with 136,000 new infections detected Sunday alone, the highest single-day total since the pandemic began. The order of the day? Reopening.
Terrified after watching economies built over decades hollow out in a matter of weeks, countries seem to be saying, in effect: Enough. For health officials who have been watching the virus with alarm as it began claiming a foothold in continent after continent, it is a dizzying moment.
Governments [in Latin America] are forced to choose between watching citizens die of the virus or watching them die of hunger. 500,000 projected Covid-19 cases in Delhi by July-end based on the current infection rate 414,000 people have died worldwide after being infected by the new coronavirus 52,991
Covid-19 cases reported in South Africa — the most in the whole of Africa
Peak on the way
“This is not the time for any country to take its foot off the pedal,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organisation, warned at a news conference in Geneva this week. The crisis, he said, is “far from over.”
While infection rates in the hardest-hit cities in United States and Europe may have slowed, the virus remains deeply woven into the fabric of the world. Indeed, the global peak of infection may still be months away.
In the absence of a vaccine, the only proven strategy against the coronavirus has been limiting human contact. Cities around the world have done just that, reaping the benefits as new infections dwindled and then gingerly lifting movement restrictions. But it is not that simple. In the longer term, as outbreaks wax and wane, public health officials say, there might need to be a period of repeated closings and openings. And that could prove a much harder sell.
‘Worst nightmare’ in US
Amid economic pain unlike anything seen in generations, there simply may not be the same political will, or even desire, to shut things down again. And while the public largely went along with restrictions, it remains to be seen if citizens would be so accommodating a second time around.
On Tuesday, the United States’ top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, delivered a grim assessment — he described Covid-19 as his “worst nightmare” — and a warning. “In a period of four months, it has devastated the whole world,” Fauci said. “And it isn’t over yet.”
Latin America’s dilemma
In Latin America, cases are surging both in countries that took early isolation measures, like Peru and Bolivia, and in those that ignored many public recommendations, like Brazil and Nicaragua. Governments, forced to choose between watching citizens die of the virus or watching them die of hunger, are loosening lockdowns.
The Pan American Health Organization on Tuesday painted a dire picture for Latin America and the Caribbean. The crisis, said the organisation’s director, Dr. Carissa F. Etienne, “has pushed our region to the limit.”
In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro’s government took another approach: It stopped reporting the cumulative toll of the virus altogether, before a Supreme Court justice ordered it be reinstated.
And in Mexico, president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has struggled to balance a response to the coronavirus with the economic needs of a country in which more than half of the population lives hand-to-mouth, working informal jobs, without a safety net. Now, Mexico is starting to bustle again as the country gradually reopens.
India’s challenge
Even some countries that moved against the virus head on are losing ground. Among them is India. “There will be a total ban of coming out of your homes,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi told his citizens on March 24. “Every state, every district, every lane, every village will be under lockdown.”
The ambition was staggering. India is a country of 1.3 billion, and hundreds of millions of its citizens are destitute, with countless millions living in packed urban areas with weak public health care. Despite the swift action, the country is now grappling with a sharp surge of infections.
In just 24 hours, India reported 10,000 new cases, for a total of at least 275,000, surpassing Spain to become one of the five countries with the highest caseloads. Public health experts are warning of a looming shortage of hospital beds and doctors.
But this week, Indians can once again dine out, shop and pray at religious sites.
Manish Sisodia, a government official in New Delhi, warned that the capital was likely to have 500,000 coronavirus cases by the end of July, based on the current rate of infection.
African tally climbs
In South Africa, health officials recorded more than half the country’s current cases in the past two weeks alone. With 52,991 confirmed cases, it has the most in Africa.
“Like many South Africans, I, too, have been worried as I watch these figures keep rising,” President Cyril Ramaphosa wrote in his weekly letter to the nation. Still, the country is reopening, and most members of South Africa’s work force have now returned to their jobs. Ramaphosa said the lockdown had achieved the goal of giving hospitals time to prepare, an assertion that may be tested in coming days.
Playbook for Europe
It appears clear that the playbook for slowing the spread of the virus used in Western Europe and the US may not work everywhere. Societies with informal economies simply cannot enforce lockdowns without running the risk of societal collapse. Even in US the challenges remain: a Maine facility that produces tests to detect the novel coronavirus has become the site of a viral outbreak. But even countries that have recovered from the first wave of the virus are by no means out of the woods. Social-distancing rules mostly remain haphazard, little match for the most basic of human desires: to connect.