Modi rallies troops at volatile border
First visit to Ladakh since June 15 clash prompts China to urge restraint
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi yesterday made an unexpected visit to the border region where Indian and Chinese troops are locked in a stand-off, warning that India’s commitment to peace should not be seen as a sign of weakness.
“Every mountain, every peak is witness to the valour of Indian soldiers. Age of expansionism is over, this is the age of development. History is witness that expansionist forces have either lost or were forced to turn back,” Modi said in a speech to the soldiers.
Age of expansionism is over, this is the age of development. History is witness that expansionist forces have either lost or were forced to turn back.” Narendra Modi | Indian Prime Minister
Modi’s first visit to Ladakh comes after a massive military buildup in Ladakh following hand-to-hand combat between Indian and Chinese soldiers on June 15 that left 20 Indians dead and dozens injured in the Galwan Valley. China has not specified the number of casualties among its soldiers.
Modi’s words prompted Beijing to call for restraint. “In these circumstances, neither side should take actions that might complicate the border situation,” China’s foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said.
Modi later visited a military hospital where he met injured soldiers. “Enemies of India have seen your fire and fury,” he told them.
On Monday, India banned 59 Chinese apps, including TikTok, citing security issues.
The Indian military has been talking about a two-front war with neighbours Pakistan and China for decades to keep politicians focused on defence spending. Now that scenario is looking ever more realistic, with conflicts flaring on both its disputed borders.
Talks earlier this week between top Chinese and Indian army commanders in the Ladakh region ended without a major breakthrough, the second such attempt to cool things down since 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops were killed on June 15 in their worst clash in four decades. Around the same time, weapons and explosives were recovered and two suspected terrorists were killed after a 15-hour gun battle some 660km away in south Kashmir, officials said.
India has fought four wars with China and Pakistan since it gained freedom from British rule in 1947, but it has never had to defend both borders at the same time. Indian military officials are growing concerned that China and Pakistan might gang up on New Delhi at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is faced with surging coronavirus infections. Modi made a surprise visit to Indian Army headquarters in Leh yesterday, where he was briefed on the nine-week long face-off with China.
“We have seen relations with both Islamabad and Beijing worsen over the past few years, and the result is that both have decided to escalate things during the pandemic, when the Modi government is stretched and distracted,” said Ian Hall, professor of international relations at Griffith University in Queensland, Australia.
Contingency planning
The Indian military is huge and contingencies are always kept in mind, said a senior security official who wasn’t authorised to speak to the press. But despite the planning, the need to commit resources to two fronts at the same time would stretch the armed forces.
It’s an eventuality India’s army chief has warned of, urging the government — including its diplomatic corps — to be prepared to step in to avoid it.
Stretched resources “As far as two front war is concerned it is a possibility,” General Manoj Mukund Naravane, India’s Chief of Army Staff, said in May. “A country does not go to war with its armed forces alone. It has other pillars like diplomatic corp and other organs of government which will come into play to make sure that we are not forced into a corner where we will have to deal with two adversaries at the same time and in full strength.”
India’s 742-km Line of Control with Pakistan has become equally active and tense. Indian troops have faced regular cross-border firing and engaged in counter-terror operations in the hinterland.
India’s army said it killed 127 “terrorists” in the first six months of the year, about 30 per cent higher from a year ago, according to a senior security official. The incidents of crossborder firing recorded by the Indian military also doubled in 2020 compared to 2019, the official said.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry blamed India for more than 1,500 “ceasefire violations” including deaths and injuries of civilians on their side of the Kashmir frontier this year.
Possible collusion
Collusion between Pakistan and China to keep India’s borders on simmer is difficult to prove but cannot be ruled out, said Vipin Narang, associate professor of political science at MIT. Islamabad may “also be opportunistically taking advantage of India’s distraction and focus on the LAC.”
The clash with “China is obviously a major embarrassment for India. What are India’s choices? It can’t attack China and throw them out and they know it,” said Mahmud Durrani, a retired lieutenant general and national security adviser in Pakistan. “The fallout of that can be that to prove their strength and muscles, they are going to do something with Pakistan — the smaller partner of China.”