Rudderless Lebanon drifts closer to storm
HEZBOLLAH’S CHOICES CRITICAL TO FIXING THE CRISIS
Lebanon’s hopes of economic salvation through an IMF deal have retreated with the government either unwilling or unable to enact reforms. With Lebanon facing one of its most difficult moments since independence in 1943, the choices made by its most powerful actor, Iranian-backed Hezbollah, will be vital in shaping what happens next. Here are some scenarios:
Paralysis continues
Without external support, the pound collapses further, extending an 80 per cent crash since October. Venezuela-style hyperinflation begins.
Social unrest and crime increase leads sectarian parties to take law and order into their own hands, a throwback to the 1975-90 civil war.
“If the current depreciation trends continue, within weeks, we will see the first signs of self protection” said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Centre.
Government starts reforms
Desperate to halt the currency’s collapse, the sectarian elite gives a green light for the government to enact some reforms. Signs of reform may yield some aid. “If the international community doesn’t want the country to go to very
dangerous places, we might see some initiatives,” said Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-inchief of An Nahar newspaper.
Government is replaced
Confronted by the costs of collapse, Hezbollah agrees to take a back seat and acquiesces in the formation of a government that can win broad international support.
“If Hezbollah sees that the big fire is going to hurt it a lot, starve its people, as others, and take Lebanon into a situation it doesn’t want ... perhaps it will be convinced to make a concession,” Boumonsef said. “But so far I have not seen them reach this level of vision.”