What is Quad and is it still relevant?
_____ • _____ Grouping of the US, India, Japan and Australia will need new focus in changed scenario
With the dust finally seeming to settle, at least for the moment, on the Indo-Chinese dispute along with Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, the relations between the two countries have also witnessed a thaw in recent days.
India has cleared the decks for a slew of foreign investments from China, which had been on the back burner since the crisis. Quick to respond, Beijing, too, has voiced its support for New Delhi holding the next Brics summit — the congregation of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — the powerhouse emerging economies. Recently released data also show that China has once again topped the list of countries that has the highest level of foreign trade with India, toppling the US from that position.
With this newfound, or rather, re-established bonhomie, one question remains — what is the future of the Quad?
For the non-initiated, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, known in short as the Quad, is an informal forum between the US, Japan, Australia, and India. The grouping came into formation in 2007 at the initiative of then Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. It drew support from US VicePresident Dick Cheney, Australian Prime Minister John Howard and Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.
Informal alliance
The main purpose of the grouping was, ostensibly, information exchange, summits and military exercises. Though it wasn’t clearly mentioned, international policywatchers believed that the formation was an informal alliance to counter the growing prominence of China. However, the group failed to make any mark during its initial days, mainly due to regime and political changes across the four countries.
Over the next decade, while the idea of the Quad remained on ice, bilateral cooperation between the countries, however, grew at a strong pace. India even held military exercises during this period with both the US and Australia.
The Quad was somewhat revived in 2017, and has held several rounds of talks since then, while military exercises have continued, most notably the Malabar exercises in November last year.
The Quad countries now have higher levels of cooperation than they did in 2007. Deeper levels of engagement are now in place in the foreign policy, security and military spheres. India, at the same time, is seeking to widen its influence in its immediate neighbourhood, while Japan is seeking the same route in the Indian Ocean region.
Then, of course, came Covid-19. The economic whiplash that hit the world in the aftermath of the pandemic has weakened every country on earth.
So, now, what lies ahead for the Quad? Let’s take the countries one by one.
The US, under the new administration of Joe Biden, is unlikely to focus much on the matter, as its primary concern now is to fight the raging pandemic, which has taken more than half a million lives. In terms of foreign policy, Biden is focused much more on mending bridges than breaking them, unlike his belligerent predecessor.
Counterbalancing option
Australia, while wary of China’s influence and seeking a counterbalancing option, is nevertheless too deeply tied with Beijing economically to think of any openly hostile stance. Being a commodity exporter, Canberra’s primary market for its coal and iron ore exports are the industries on the Chinese mainland.
India, weakened as it is by the economic aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, is also in no state to pledge funds or effort towards the Quad. In addition, India has always been intent on retaining its sovereign right to take autonomous decisions, which recently prompted its decision not to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, an economic alliance led by China, of which, ironically, Japan and Australia are also a part.
Japan, too, continues to reel under the impact of the pandemic, as it reimposed a state of emergency in Tokyo and some other areas.
Thus, taken together, none of the countries currently are in any position to make the Quad a regional force to reckon with.
However, there may be some hope still left for the group. The simple way forward is not to use it as a focal point against any particular country, but as a means to foster deeper cooperation across all fields. These four nations are all major players on the world stage and thus multilateral cooperation will only strengthen their ties across all fronts. Once the ties are stronger and the economies have regained their strengths, then maybe it would be possible to look at broader military cooperation. The idea of an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) is fascinating, and need not be directed against anyone.
I’m sure despite the presence of the Nato forces, no one in France or Germany seriously believes there will be missiles raining down from the East. The same logic can also be applied in this case.
As far as India is concerned, the country’s policymakers best wait and watch till the global situation becomes clear. Future strategies will have to be decided based on geopolitical realities and national self-interest.
US President Joe Biden made his debut on the international stage last Friday when he addressed a virtual meeting of the Munich Security Conference and outlined his administration’s foreign policy foundations. Putting an end to Donald Trump’s isolationist era he declared that “America is back” in reference to it reclaiming its role as a global world leader that is ready to engage with its partners and foes.
He set out a humanitarian message that focused on embracing and supporting democratic values, human rights and the rule of law while underlining his embrace of multilateralism. Moving away from Trump’s “America First” mantra Biden outlined how his administration was quick to rejoin the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organisation (WHO) while pledging billions of dollars to support a fund that aims at delivering COVID-19 vaccines to poor countries.
Regardless of how one feels about US politics and role in the world, America’s leadership is sorely needed at a time of a global pandemic, economic meltdown, environmental catastrophes and endemic regional conflicts. Biden promised positive engagement and working with America’s partners to strengthen alliances and putting diplomacy first as a way to resolve conflicts.
But he also pointed the finger at China, as an economic foe, and Russia as a political adversary. Both countries present challenges to the US and its European partners. Moscow, he said, wants to weaken the European project and undermine the transatlantic alliance.
Regional agenda
His reference to the Middle East focused almost entirely on Iran and its nuclear activities. He announced that the US was prepared to re-engage in negotiations with the P5+1 on Iran’s nuclear program while also addressing Iran’s destabilising activities across the Middle East.
In the view of many US analysts, Biden’s foreign policy priority in the region will target renegotiating the nuclear agreement with Iran in a bid to roll back unilateral measures taken by Tehran to resume its uranium enrichment outside any international oversight.
The US has welcomed a European initiative to hold fresh talks with Iran. But a hawkish Iranian parliament backed by the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini is refusing to back down and insists on the unconditional return of the US to the 2015 nuclear deal while lifting all economic sanctions.
Iran is also refusing any suggestions to renegotiate the deal that includes putting constraints on its long range missile program. The US, as well as its European and regional partners, want to discuss Iran’s regional agenda and its meddling in the affairs of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
As things stand now it looks almost impossible that the US will cave in to Tehran’s conditions. It also seems that Iran’s hardliners will prevent the Hassan Rouhani government from making any concessions. Iran will hold new elections in June and hardliners are expected to dominate. For now the stalemate will remain at least until after the Iranian elections. Analysts also believe that Biden may resume the pivot to Asia policy of President Obama and that the Middle East may not be a priority for his foreign policy team. That would be a grave mistake.
For one while the US is no longer dependent on Middle East oil, its interests stretch beyond the economic sphere. The Iranian question presents a challenge for America’s partners in the region and Europe. America’s presence in Iraq and its attempt to stabilise that country almost two decades after it invaded it will not be settled while Iran and pro-Iran militias continue to divide that country.
Support for two-state solution
Also while Biden and his team reiterated their support for the two-state solution to end the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, the White House is not expected to launch any new initiatives. Allowing Israel to continue its policy of colony building in Palestinian territory will complicate future peace efforts.
The reality is that the region needs US engagement and leadership. America’s absence in the past four years has exacerbated regional problems and allowed countries like Turkey and Iran to extend their influence in the region beyond their borders. And as President Biden said the US cannot allow Daesh to regroup once more. For the international coalition to succeed in stamping out terrorist groups in the region US leadership is needed.