Why is Lebanon unable to form a government?
ANY CABINET WILL BE REJECTED AS PRESENT LEADERS CAN’T REBUILD LEBANON
There are two initiatives currently on the table to move the Lebanese cabinet formation talks forward. One is the brainchild of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and second is an expansion on an initiative proposed last September by French President Emanuel Macron.
So what is the problem?
It’s been six months now since Prime Minister-designate Sa’ad Hariri was asked to form a government, and yet, he has repeatedly failed to come up with something acceptable to President Michel Aoun and his ambitious sonin-law Gibran Basil, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) head.
Hariri and Aoun agree on nothing. Their last meeting on March 22 ended in failure, with each side blaming the other for lack of progress.
The Prime Minister wants a minimised technocratic government of 18 ministers; Aoun wants an expanded one of 20-24, with a blocking majority for the FPM. A small cabinet means four Sunnis (including the premier), four Shiites, one Druze, and nine Christians (4 Maronites, 3 Greek Orthodox, 1 Roman Catholic, and 1 Armenian).
Christian ministers
Hariri wants to name two out of nine Christian ministers, but Aoun is insisting that only his party, the FPM, is entitled to nominate Christian ministers. Aoun justifies that claim by pointing to the fact that his party controls the largest Christian bloc in Parliament, with 29 MPs.
When it comes to portfolios, Aoun is also making claim to the Ministry of Interior, which has traditionally been held by a Sunni from Hariri’s Future Party. Hariri tried meeting him at midway, nominating neither a Sunni nor a Maronite for the job, but a Greek Orthodox. Aoun flatly rejected the proposal.
The two men were also quarreling over the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has traditionally been held by the Aounists. Gibran Basil curtly refused relinquishing it to a Sunni from Hariri’s team. Again, Hariri came up with an idea, suggesting that it goes neither to a Sunni nor to a Christian but to a Druze, which was also rejected by Aoun.
In his last cabinet line-up, rejected by Aoun, Hariri had made sure to accommodate the two Shiite parties, Hezbollah and Amal. A cabinet of 18 ought to have contained only two seats for the Shiites but Hariri gave them four.
He increased their power however by giving those four ministers a total of six portfolios, becoming the largest share in Lebanese history.
The Berri Initiative
Berri has been mediating between the two sides, trying to come up with a suitable formula. He enjoys excellent personal relations with Hariri and happens to be part of the same coalition with Aoun, known as the March 8 Alliance.
The Berri Initiative calls on Hariri to abandon his insistence on a minimized cabinet in exchange for Aoun abandoning his claim to a blocking majority. Hariri accepted positively to the Speaker’s suggestion, dropping his claim for an 18-man cabinet.
An expanded cabinet would mean an increased share for Aoun and his Shiite allies, Hezbollah and Amal. It would also mean two Druze seats, rather than one. The first would be named by Hariri’s ally Walid Jumblatt, and the second by Emir Talal Arslan, an ally of Hezbollah.