Why Iraq’s elections today will be watched by world
COUNTRY’S CRUCIAL ROLE AS REGIONAL PEACEMAKER HANGS IN BALANCE
Iraq’s elections today come with enormous challenges: The country’s economy has been battered by years of conflict, endemic corruption and more recently, the coronavirus pandemic. State institutions are failing, the country’s infrastructure is crumbling. Powerful paramilitary groups increasingly threaten the authority of the state, and hundreds of thousands of people are still displaced from the years of war against Daesh.
While few Iraqis expect meaningful change in their day-to-day lives, the parliament elections will shape the direction of Iraq’s foreign policy at a key time in the Middle East, including as Iraq is mediating between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.
“Iraq’s elections will be watched by all in the region to determine how the country’s future leadership will sway the regional balance of power,” said Marsin Al Shamary an Iraqi-American research fellow with the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. So, what are the main things to watch for?
Many firsts
The polls are being held early, in response to mass protests that erupted in 2019. It’s the first time a vote is taking place because of demands by protesters on the streets. The vote is also taking place under a new election law that divides Iraq into smaller constituencies - another demand of the activists - and allows for more independent candidates.
A UN Security Council resolution adopted earlier this year authorised an expanded team to monitor the elections.
Iraq is also for the first time introducing biometric cards for voters amid rigging concerns.
Groups drawn from Shiite factions dominate the electoral landscape but are divided over the influence of neighbouring Iran. A tight race is expected between the bloc of influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, the biggest winner in the 2018 election, and the Fatah Alliance led by paramilitary leader Hadi Al Ameri, which came in second.
The Fatah Alliance comprises of parties affiliated with the Popular Mobilisation Forces, an umbrella group of mostly proIran Shiite militias that rose to prominence during the war against the Daesh terror group. It includes some of the most hardline pro-Iran factions such as the Asaib Ahl Al Haq militia. Al Sadr, a nationalist and populist leader, is also close to Iran, but publicly rejects its political influence.
Kataib Hezbollah, a militia with close ties to Iran, is fielding candidates for the first time.
Calls for boycott
Activists and young Iraqis who took part in the protests calling for change have been divided over whether to take part in the vote.
The 2018 elections saw a record low turnout with just 44 per cent of eligible voters casting ballots. The results were widely contested. There are concerns of a similar or even lower turnout this time.
Mustafa Al Jabouri, a 27-yearold private sector employee, says he won’t vote after seeing his friends killed in the demonstrations, “in front of my eyes.”
The vote comes amid a flurry of diplomatic activity in the region, partially spurred by the Biden administration’s gradual retreat from the Middle East and icy relations with traditional ally Saudi Arabia.
Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi has sought to portray Iraq as a neutral mediator in the region’s crises. In recent months, Baghdad hosted several rounds of direct talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran in a bid to ease tensions.
Al Shamary said Arab states will be watching to see what gains pro-Iranian factions make in the vote and, conversely, Iran will look at how Western-leaning politicians fare.
While few Iraqis expect meaningful change in their day-to-day lives, the parliament elections will shape the direction of Iraq’s foreign policy.