Election tests loyalties of ethnic-Russian voters

Neighbouring Russia’s attack on Ukraine helped shape the general election held yesterday in Latvia, where divisions among the Baltic country’s sizeable ethnicRussian minority are likely to influence the make-up of parliament and war-induced energy concerns will preoccupy the next government.

Several polls showed the centre-right New Unity party of Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins emerging as the top votegetter, with up to 20 per cent support.

Karins, who became head of Latvia’s government in January 2019, currently leads a four-party minority coalition that along with New Unity includes the centre-right National Alliance, the centrist Development/For!, and the Conservatives. A total of 19 parties have over 1,800 candidates running in the election, but only around eight parties are expected to break through the 5 per cent threshold required to secure a place in the 100-seat Saeima legislature.

Karins, a 57-year-old dual Latvian-US citizen born in Wilmington, Delaware, told Latvian media outlets that it would be easiest to continue with the same coalition government if New Unity wins. He has excluded any cooperation with pro-Kremlin parties.

Support for parties catering to the ethnic-Russian minority that makes up over 25 per cent of Latvia’s 1.9 million population is expected to be mixed; a share of loyal voters have abandoned them — for various reasons — since the war.

The election is likely to be the death knell for the opposition Harmony party, whose popularity has steadily declined. A recent poll by Latvian public broadcaster LSM showed Harmony trailing in fifth place with 5.1 per cent support.