Where do US Republicans go from here?
The party needs to organise itself better and to master the rules as they exist if they cannot be changed
Republicans smarting from a disappointing election want somebody to blame. Expectations, including mine, soared as the country was swamped with bad economic news. It wasn’t irrational exuberance, but it was still an understandable looking beyond the election in front of us to the GOP agenda, while looking past some obvious flaws in our own nominees. Lesson (re-) learned.
But this isn’t the GOP’s version of the Democrats’ 2016 shock, with stunned staffers sitting on curbs. It’s a prod to get better at party organisation and to master the rules as they exist if they cannot be changed.
What the GOP needs is a quick vote of confidence in the experienced congressional hands who know how to position the party while landing some wins along the way to the big contest for the presidency in 2024. GOP House leader Kevin McCarthy and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell have critics within their caucuses, and some loud hecklers in the conservative media ecosystem, but both are canny, hard-working, competent coalition managers. The question now should be, what’s the best route to a 2024 victory? It would simply be party suicide to depose either leader or even to spend much time trying.
McCarthy has been de facto leader of the GOP House since then-Speaker Paul D. Ryan announced retirement in April 2018. McCarthy guided the Republicans to increased numbers in 2020. If he has gotten them over the top this year, it would be insane to begin shooting inside the tent. No leader of a caucus of 218 or more members can satisfy them all, but outliers should not control the vast majority that supports McCarthy.
McCarthy and his able ally Steve Scalise will need a whip who can work the caucus and the media while representing the growing veteran coalition within the GOP and young parents everywhere.
Disappointment vs bitterness
“Never get too high” should be a sign at GOP HQ. Right next to: “Never get too low or make decisions when angry or disappointed.” McCarthy and McConnell can guide the GOP back to governing power in 2024, and they will support whomever the party nominates in what promises to be another demolition derby presidential primary — just like 2016. As it should be.
Disappointment can be a reason for change, but not if it descends into bitterness. With the presidency in Democratic hands, we were always going to have divided power in DC. Republicans ought to focus on making 2024 a second 1980, not a second 1964. It won’t take much to secure a House-Senate-White House trifecta. But it could also turn into a triple loss if activists and donors can’t turn away from party-splintering internecine battles.
Winning requires optimism and a spirited but not destructive 2024 primary season. And it requires patient, coherent progress on the Hill. That’s a goal best served by quick votes of confidence in McCarthy and McConnell.