The sun was shining despite the date

I wish all of my American readers and their families a very happy Thanksgiving. There are many contracts that declarers misplay without realizing it. Sometimes, though, they make the contract anyway and think nothing more of it. However, once in a blue moon the opposing cards will divide so unfavorably that they go down. Then comes the grumble about bad luck. Ideally, of course, declarer looks for and finds a line of play that allows for these diabolical distributions.

Take today’s deal for example. After a standard auction, North wisely not mentioning his club suit, West leads the spade queen.

Most players win the first trick and without further ado play a club to dummy’s queen. When East discards, the declarers stop dead in their tracks, the contract now equally lifeless. They can finesse dummy’s club 10 for an eighth trick, but the ninth is long gone. Slightly better declarers play a club to the 10 at trick two. This guards against a 4-1 club break, but here it still results in down one.

The best declarers lead a club and finesse dummy’s eight, allowing for the 5-0 split. When East discards, they beam contentedly. They return to hand in another suit and play their second club to dummy’s 10. The result is one overtrick, not one undertrick.

I hear you ask: “What are the chances of these splits?” True, West will have all five clubs less than 2% of the time. He will hold jack-fourth only 14% of the time. Also, those are a priori odds. The a posteriori odds are even lower, given that West has spade length.