China growth gains strength
Output rises 10.3% from a year earlier, producer prices fall 1.5%, inflation at 3.2%
Nerys Avery, Scott Lanman
beijing — China’s industrial output growth unexpectedly accelerated and inflation stayed below a government target, providing a boost to Communist Party leaders meeting on Saturday in Beijing to chart the economy’s course for coming years.
Production rose 10.3 per cent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday, exceeding the 10 per cent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists and the previous month’s 10.2 per cent. Inflation was a less-than-forecast 3.2 per cent and producer prices fell 1.5 per cent.
Saturday’s data, following an unexpectedly large jump in exports reported yesterday, add to a picture of an economy that is gaining strength. The improvements may bolster the confidence of President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang as they wrestle with the scale and pace of reform at a four-day meeting that state media say may be a “wa- tershed” in the nation’s development.
“The recovery momentum is slightly stronger and more sustainable than what markets had expected and inflation is still not a threat,” said Lu Ting, head of Greater China economics at Bank of America. The central bank won’t “significantly tighten monetary policies as new leaders still need a stable economic and financial environment to consolidate their power base,” he said.
GDP growth rebounded to 7.8 per cent in the third quarter from 7.5 per cent in the previous three months. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 34 economists last month was for fourthquarter expansion of 7.6 per cent.
October’s retail sales growth of 13.3 per cent compared with the median projection for a 13.4 per cent advance and a 13.3 per cent increase the previous month. Fixed-asset investment excluding rural households in the first 10 months of the year gained 20.1 per cent after a 20.2 per cent increase in the first nine months.
The increase in October’s consumer price index, which compared with the median estimate of 3.3 per cent in a Bloomberg survey, was the fastest since February when the index also rose 3.2 per cent. Factory-gate prices have now fallen for 20 straight months, the longest stretch since 2002.
Food prices rose 6.5 per cent from a year earlier, the most since April 2012, while the non-food inflation rate was unchanged from September at 1.6 per cent. Gains in the consumer price index have stayed below the government’s 2013 target of 3.5 per cent all year.