Experts warn of ripple effects of Brussels blasts
paris — As Brussels reels from an attack by Daesh militants, analysts warn of a ripple effect that could further whip up populist sentiment on the continent and in the United States.
Across the Atlantic Ocean, Tuesday’s bombings in the Belgian capital have provided fodder for Donald Trump’s divisive electoral campaign while in Europe they risk hardening responses to the refugee crisis.
Analysts warn that at a time when unity is more crucial than ever, the attack could create divisions that will make it harder to tackle Daesh and the crises it has spawned.
“The risk is a spiral where our reaction to this very real threat makes matters worse, not better,” said Thomas Wright, an analyst at the Brookings Institution’s Centre
The refugee and terrorist crises are completely different topics but obviously public opinion links them
Dominique Moisi, an expert
on the United States and Europe.
So what could the fallout be from the latest Daesh attack?
Over one million refugees and migrants, nearly half of them Syrian, arrived in Europe last year alone, creating an unprecedented crisis that has created deep rifts between EU members over how to respond.
Public opinion was already hardening against the refugees. Several EU countries have re-im- posed border controls and limited the number of migrants they will accept, leaving thousands stuck in grim conditions at European crossings.
The attack on Brussels was likely to make matters worse for the refugees, with Poland’s Prime Minister Beata Szydlo quick to say her country would no longer take in the agreed 7,000 refugees.
“The refugee and terrorist crises are completely different topics but obviously public opinion links them,” said Dominique Moisi of the French Institute for International Relations.
“The more you see terrorist activities the less you want to see refugees, which is very unfair for the refugees but this is part of the emotional response of public opinion.”
Wright said a tougher stance on migrants would do little to prevent further attacks.
“Many of these terrorists are already residents or citizens of Europe. They wouldn’t be stopped by tougher migration laws,” he said.
The refugee crisis and Daesh threat have pushed voters into the arms of right-wing parties. One has already taken power in Poland, while others are experiencing a surge in support from Slovakia to Sweden, Austria to France.
The latest attack could deepen support for such parties.
“It seems like it could play into the hands of the populists and the nationalists. Their message of closing borders, of greater intolerance may have added resonance after the attacks,” said Wright.