Is Daesh making a comeback in Iraq?

More than 30 people died in Iraq the other day as Daesh once again went on a killing spree. Sporadic attacks were reported from Basra, Baghdad and other adjoining areas. The most troubling point was that as many as 10 suicide bombers reportedly carried out the attacks. This goes on to confirm that the dreaded militia has taken roots in the society, and is bent upon sowing the seeds of discontent. A change of pattern in violence exhibits that terrorists are now attacking public places, such as restaurants and shopping centers. Previously, the focus was on government installations, especially the military cadres. Iraq has seen massive bloodshed for the last two decades, and the security equation is precarious to say the least. It seems government efforts to exterminate the terror nexus has not been successful, and there is a serious miss between the executive and the security forces.

The new attacks, however, have come at a time when the newly-raised national army had made significant gains in recapturing areas that had fallen to Daesh. The extremist group had moved into northern Iraq from Syria. The government’s recent success in Fallujah, Tikrit, Baiji in Salahuddin and Ramadi, as well as the inroads it made in Mosul is a game-changer for the country and the region. This deadly blow, it seems, is now being revenged by Daesh, which is also in the process of regrouping after being battered in Syria. Iraq’s strategy to push back Daesh inside Syria, from where it literally originated, has won dividends from Kurd populace, who border the areas on Turkish and Syrian frontiers. Which is why Daesh is now targeting areas in and around Baghdad to unnerve the government writ. Iraq has no choice but to exterminate the faceless enemy, and the best way of doing it is to further the process of reconciliation. Only then can the defence of the country be made impregnable.

Not long ago the European Union stood as an unassailable beacon, a model for how trade and shared values could override historical hatreds and how a disparate collection of nations could work together under a single set of political values. After the Cold War, the EU earned its spurs by welcoming much of former Soviet-controlled Europe into its fold and mentoring governments towards delivering security, wealth and fairness. It was a triumph of globalisation on European scale.

Now, partly of its own making and partly because of events out of its control, the EU has become vulnerable, in the process raising questions about viability of globalisation. Vacuums created by weakness are being filled by China and Russia, powers with much influence, but driving global politics towards authoritarianism. As yet, there are no red lines to prompt major policy decisions. At first glance, who would care that the China Shipping Group has set up operations in the tiny half-built Moldovan river port of Giurgiulești, creating a lifeline for Europe’s poorest country or that Beijing wooed troubled Ukraine, signing deals for it to supply 75 per cent of China’s imported corn. Dig deeper, and European anti-trust regulators are checking how Russia sells nuclear reactors and energy supplies to Hungary, Bulgaria and other countries.

Chinese and Russian influence in Eastern and Central Europe is no sophisticated Trojan horse, but more a natural evolution in the years since 1989, a reminder that liberal democracy is not an end point and politics never stand still.

After the Tiananmen Square protests, China launched its economy-led doctrine while the former Soviet satellite states hailed the EU’s democracy. Much of Europe experienced a peaceful transition. Russia’s own democratic experiment failed, due to corruption and sabotage to the constitution, casting it outside the European family while China’s wealth-based policies accomplished more than anyone had anticipated.

Beijing runs its activities through the prism of business. It has created a special trading group, 16+1, with 16 Eastern and Central European governments and a $500 million investment fund. Accepting that this region is in Moscow’s sphere of influence, China treads carefully not to upset the wider Sino-Russian relationship.

Moscow, historically entwined with Eastern and Central Europe, offers vast energy resources and support for political movements. Out of 14 farright parties in the European Parliament, eight support Russia, four are open to persuasion and two have spoken out against Russian influence, according to Political Capital Institute. Russia is also making inroads in EU-aspirant countries such as Serbia, Moldova and Albania.

Russia makes no secret that it wants to re-establish influence in the Soviet Union’s former arc of control. This challenge is not immediate, but needs to be acknowledged and handled before Europe gets caught unawares as it was with the refugee crisis and Russian intervention in Ukraine.

The question is how, and must European values be compromised to succeed?

The genesis of the EU was the 1951 five-nation Coal and Steel Community trading pact designed mostly to stop conflict between France and Germany. Until recently the European project was working well. An early marker of trouble was the 2008 economic crisis, particularly in Greece. That was followed by the Middle East and North Africa immigration flood when the EU dithered, incapable of deciding policy. The immigration crisis hit at the core of globalisation. And Britain, the EU’s second biggest economy, is debating whether it should remain a member. A referendum is in June, and if Britain leaves, other nations may follow.

All of this has weakened the European vision, and again immigration and

The EU – divided over debt, entitlements and refugees – confronts authoritarian politics at home and from afar

race that once seemed attenuated by globalisation have become defining issues of its future.

The EU is aware of the Chinese or Russian influence, and for that matter, the popularity of authoritarianism, but does not yet have an overriding policy to counter it. Anti-trust measures on energy deals may not be enough.

Some initial steps should include re-examination of EU regulations on democracy, free speech and human rights with stronger implementation if necessary. There is no mechanism to expel a member state. But more than anything, the EU needs to take on the debate and win.

This is a direct challenge to the EU’s existence, one emboldened by friendships with Russia and China. At stake is the most successful economic and democratic experiment in modern history. The issue is too important for Europe, once again, to be taken by surprise.