Mass transit under siege by driverless taxis
new york — Mass transit, the lifeblood of cities worldwide, is under threat from the biggest innovation in automotive technology since Henry Ford’s assembly line first flooded streets with cars.
The self-driving vehicles being pioneered by Tesla Motors, Alphabet’s Google and others are poised to dramatically lower the cost of taxis, potentially making them cheaper than buses or subways, according to a joint report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and McKinsey & Co. Having no driver to pay could reduce taxi prices to 67 cents a mile by 2025, less than a quarter of the cost in Manhattan today, the report found.
It’s a change with the potential to reshape commuting patterns, transforming urban life. As prices fall, the challenge for cities is that the cars may become too popular. Instead of complementing public transit, they may lure commuters away from buses and trains, inundating streets with drone cars.
“If we don’t manage this properly, the most dense cities in the world will be pretty unpleasant places to live,” said Colin McKerracher, an analyst with Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Automakers have significant hurdles to overcome before cars can effectively drive themselves; the technology now is more like an autopilot that must be constantly monitored. While driverless cars have already shown the ability to handle highways, companies are pushing to perfect them for city streets, using GPS to navigate and sophisticated sensors to detect vehicles, pedestrians, bicyclists and pets.
“It’s an astounding development in the transportation world,” said Lucius Riccio, a professor at Columbia University and former New York City transportation commissioner. “This is the first major change in 100 years.”
The arrival of driverless taxis comes as the industry is upended by ride-sharing services offered by Uber Technologies, Lyft and others. The prospect of computers at the wheel will dwarf those controversies, imperiling an entire profession. — Bloomberg