IEA raises its five-year renewables forecast
paris — The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for renewable energy growth over the next five years, saying on Tuesday it expects the share of renewables in the world to rise to 28 per cent by 2021 from 23 per cent generated in 2015.
Growth in renewables is being driven by improved policy changes in countries such as the United States, China and Mexico; and a sharp fall in costs, the agency said in its medium-term market report.
Global renewable electricity capacity is expected to rise by 42 per cent or 825 gigawatts (GW) by 2021, the IEA said, 13 per cent higher than an estimate last year.
“We are witnessing a transformation of global power markets led by renewables,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said.
The IEA, the West’s leading energy forecaster, had been criticised by environment campaigners in recent years for underestimating the growth of renewables and overemphasising the continued role of fossil fuel. On Tuesday, the IEA said the US alone represented close to half of its forecast revision due to the medium-term extension of federal tax credits, which are set to boost solar PV and onshore wind expansion. However, “China remains the undisputable global
We are witnessing a transformation of global power markets led by renewables Fatih Birol, Executive director, IEA
leader of renewable energy expansion, representing close to 40 per cent of growth”, the agency said, adding that China’s air pollution concerns and a favourable policy environment are driving growth.
“In 2021, more than one-third of global cumulative solar PV and onshore wind capacity will be located in China,” it said.
Renewable energy — which for the IEA includes hydropower, solar, wind, bioenergy, wave and tidal — will account for more than 28 per cent of global power generation by 2021, up from 23 per cent in 2015, the agency said.
About 60 per cent of the increase in global electricity generation in the five years to 2021 will come from renewables, rapidly closing the gap with coal, the agency said. It was expected to exceed 7,600 terrawatt hours (TWh) the equivalent to the total electricity generation of the US and the European Union put together today. — Reuters