Japan’s Q4 GDP better than seen

tokyo — Japan’s economy grew more than earlier estimated in the fourth quarter as capital expenditure grew at its fastest in almost three years, welcome news for policymakers as they begin to discuss how to wind down years of massive stimulus.

The economy grew an annualised 1.2 per cent in OctoberDecember, less than the median estimate for 1.6 per cent annualised growth but more than the preliminary reading of a one per cent annualised expansion.

The figure translates into quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.3 per cent, versus a preliminary reading of 0.2 per cent growth and the median estimate for 0.4 per cent growth.

A stronger pace of growth will be a boon to the government as policymakers have been counting on an increase in business investment to drive future expansion and increase low productivity. However, growth is still not robust enough to generate sustained inflation that the Bank of Japan wants, and the risk of rising protectionism could discourage Japanese exporters from raising wages, seen as key to boosting consumption and economic activity at home.

“The economy will remain in recovery mode, because we are seeing the benefits of capital expenditure from manufacturers and the construction sector,” said Shuji Tonouchi, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

“I am a little worried about the strength of consumer spending. I am still not sure how protectionism will materialise, but this is also a potential risk.”

Private consumption registered no growth in October-December, the same as preliminary data. Sluggish household spending has kept the country in prolonged deflation.

Households cut spending for the 11th straight month in January even as the job market tightened further, separate data showed earlier this month. Private consumption accounts for around 60 per cent of GDP.

The capital expenditure component of GDP rose two per cent from the previous quarter, which was more than the forecast for 1.7 per cent growth, and faster than the preliminary 0.9 per cent. —